***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.1 14.1 83.8 55.2 45.2 5.3 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.5 10.8 13.1 85.1 55.6 43.7 4.0 7.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.8 13.5 14.6 88.0 56.7 45.9 3.8 12.1 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.2 18.6 17.6 92.9 56.8 46.6 9.6 16.5 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.6 16.4 91.0 58.0 46.2 5.4 7.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.0 11.5 19.8 94.9 54.7 47.9 6.4 9.5 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.0 10.3 13.6 88.3 56.4 44.2 4.1 7.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.9 31.5 18.8 93.6 56.2 47.5 15.8 26.5 34.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.9 14.0 17.1 92.3 60.3 46.8 3.6 9.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 11.5 19.7 92.0 58.0 47.1 8.9 10.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.2 15.5 90.9 56.7 46.3 5.7 8.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.0 14.6 16.2 95.6 56.5 48.6 9.1 12.9 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 18.3 92.8 52.3 48.9 7.8 11.2 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.6 16.9 19.8 86.0 55.7 44.1 8.1 13.6 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.7 16.3 95.8 58.3 46.8 5.8 9.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.5 17.0 93.1 54.0 48.3 5.9 10.5 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.1 12.2 12.8 87.5 57.3 43.7 4.7 9.1 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.2 18.9 21.5 92.3 58.5 47.9 9.4 15.1 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 6.8 20.4 13.5 84.6 56.0 43.9 5.0 17.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.0 15.9 21.8 96.1 56.4 48.5 8.3 13.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.3 11.1 15.2 88.1 57.9 46.0 6.1 10.5 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.6 10.3 13.1 81.3 53.3 41.4 5.2 9.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 4.9 15.0 14.3 86.1 56.4 44.9 5.8 11.1 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 7.1 14.8 18.7 88.8 55.7 45.7 6.3 13.9 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.2 13.4 16.0 83.2 54.0 44.0 4.7 10.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.7 12.5 16.3 93.2 53.5 47.3 7.7 11.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.2 14.9 81.1 53.3 44.1 6.4 9.1 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 13.2 17.4 93.5 56.9 47.6 7.1 11.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 21.2 21.5 93.2 56.3 47.8 8.0 19.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.0 12.8 13.8 86.5 56.9 44.8 2.2 10.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------