***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.8 16.2 95.5 59.7 52.5 3.1 4.3 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.7 14.2 96.9 59.5 50.6 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.5 16.4 102.8 62.2 54.2 2.2 5.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.0 21.2 109.8 61.8 56.2 3.9 7.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.8 20.0 110.2 62.7 56.4 4.4 5.6 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.3 22.7 110.2 65.0 55.4 5.8 9.4 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.0 14.3 96.6 60.7 50.8 1.7 3.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.3 18.4 21.4 114.3 65.1 54.4 6.9 12.1 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.0 20.3 108.8 61.9 55.9 1.8 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.1 23.1 113.9 64.8 55.7 3.2 7.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.5 6.3 19.5 116.9 65.6 56.3 2.0 3.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.4 18.8 114.8 65.2 55.2 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.7 21.0 112.0 64.7 55.6 4.8 7.6 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.3 21.5 100.8 59.8 52.0 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.8 19.8 109.0 62.9 54.8 2.5 4.9 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.3 10.4 20.4 113.3 64.4 55.9 2.1 5.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.6 13.5 95.3 59.9 49.8 1.7 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.8 23.8 109.2 63.2 54.2 2.9 8.1 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.6 14.5 97.1 60.0 51.2 2.8 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.9 22.5 106.6 60.9 52.6 6.0 8.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.2 18.1 102.2 62.8 55.0 2.6 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.9 13.8 94.1 59.5 50.1 2.4 4.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.7 15.0 95.9 60.7 51.3 2.1 5.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.1 21.2 106.6 62.7 54.3 3.2 6.9 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.4 19.3 97.5 60.0 53.7 3.7 6.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.7 17.5 101.5 59.9 53.1 2.1 4.0 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.2 17.8 96.6 58.7 52.6 2.9 5.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.1 21.1 111.0 63.0 55.5 1.6 4.1 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.7 15.1 23.0 106.7 61.6 53.3 6.2 12.5 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.4 15.0 99.2 61.9 51.5 2.2 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------