***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.3 19.2 16.8 112.7 65.6 54.9 8.3 13.1 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.6 15.6 109.8 67.8 55.7 4.2 7.8 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.6 16.3 107.7 66.7 55.0 6.0 9.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.2 18.0 20.7 114.0 66.3 57.6 10.7 15.2 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.7 15.7 19.5 112.3 66.6 57.2 5.3 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.2 16.1 21.6 115.3 66.7 57.0 6.2 9.8 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.1 15.5 109.3 67.7 55.5 4.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 25.8 28.5 22.5 120.8 68.5 60.7 11.6 14.7 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.7 13.5 19.1 110.4 66.5 56.6 7.2 9.6 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.8 16.0 22.6 117.3 67.0 59.5 8.7 12.3 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.9 19.0 20.9 120.5 69.3 59.5 8.6 11.9 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.7 20.1 120.8 68.5 60.0 7.4 10.8 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.5 19.8 20.8 117.1 67.9 58.2 8.2 12.3 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.0 21.6 106.4 63.8 53.3 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.2 19.1 114.1 69.2 56.9 4.4 7.4 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.6 16.6 20.5 117.1 67.5 58.0 5.7 10.0 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.9 14.6 15.2 107.9 67.9 54.7 4.8 6.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.3 18.4 22.8 112.5 64.9 57.8 7.4 13.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.8 16.0 110.5 67.0 55.7 4.7 7.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.5 23.2 109.4 64.2 57.4 6.1 10.6 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.7 14.1 17.5 107.9 64.2 55.5 5.8 10.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.0 16.6 114.0 67.2 55.8 2.9 7.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.2 16.4 105.6 65.2 53.4 2.7 7.0 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.4 18.5 20.1 107.3 63.3 55.2 8.3 12.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.4 16.6 19.8 114.1 65.3 54.9 6.6 10.9 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.8 13.2 20.1 120.8 69.7 58.9 3.6 8.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.2 16.6 18.7 114.7 65.7 54.9 7.4 11.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.7 17.1 20.0 113.8 67.5 57.4 5.5 8.0 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.4 23.0 109.5 63.9 57.2 9.2 15.2 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.1 11.4 15.6 108.0 66.8 55.5 6.9 9.8 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------