***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 19.6 19.6 18.4 0.1 58.3 53.5 18.9 19.2 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 19.7 19.5 18.4 0.1 57.9 53.1 18.6 19.3 20.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 19.7 19.8 18.5 0.1 57.8 52.5 18.8 19.4 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.6 15.6 0.0 55.3 51.6 11.6 12.3 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 19.8 19.6 16.7 0.0 55.3 51.6 19.1 19.5 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.4 14.7 0.1 56.9 53.6 17.9 18.3 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 19.4 19.3 18.3 0.1 57.3 52.9 18.4 19.1 20.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.5 15.0 0.1 54.7 52.1 6.5 7.3 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 19.3 19.1 17.2 0.0 55.4 51.9 18.4 19.0 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 19.2 19.2 15.9 0.1 56.1 52.6 18.4 18.9 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 19.6 19.4 16.7 -0.1 53.7 50.5 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 18.6 18.4 16.0 -0.1 52.6 50.3 17.7 18.4 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 19.6 19.4 15.8 -0.1 52.1 49.9 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.6 17.0 0.1 57.2 52.7 18.7 19.4 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.3 17.0 -0.3 49.1 47.9 18.9 19.4 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.0 16.2 -0.1 53.4 50.6 19.2 19.8 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 19.2 19.2 18.2 0.3 60.2 55.5 17.9 18.9 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 19.1 15.4 0.2 59.2 53.7 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 19.3 19.3 18.4 0.1 57.4 52.5 18.2 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.1 13.0 0.2 57.5 54.0 13.0 13.8 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 19.7 19.5 18.1 0.2 57.1 53.5 18.7 19.3 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 19.6 20.4 18.2 0.3 62.6 55.8 18.6 19.2 20.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 20.0 19.9 18.3 0.0 55.8 51.1 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 19.4 19.5 17.0 0.1 58.7 52.8 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.7 16.9 0.0 57.0 51.7 18.4 19.5 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.7 15.2 -0.1 53.4 50.5 18.2 18.6 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.6 17.7 0.1 56.9 52.0 18.3 19.2 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.4 16.2 -0.1 51.8 50.2 18.9 19.4 20.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.1 14.6 0.2 58.6 53.9 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.3 18.3 0.0 57.4 52.2 18.4 19.1 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------