***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 22.6 23.0 20.7 0.6 55.9 54.1 20.4 21.9 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.5 20.7 0.8 60.0 55.5 20.1 22.4 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 23.1 23.1 20.9 0.6 56.4 54.5 20.4 22.7 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.2 18.1 0.3 56.4 52.7 13.6 14.6 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.8 18.8 0.4 57.1 53.4 21.1 21.9 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.6 16.3 0.1 57.2 52.3 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.0 20.6 0.7 59.9 55.3 19.9 22.8 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.1 17.2 0.3 59.2 53.6 8.0 10.0 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.8 22.0 19.2 0.5 58.6 54.4 20.5 21.3 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.5 18.0 0.5 59.6 54.5 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.4 18.5 0.2 55.4 52.5 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.1 18.1 0.1 55.9 51.8 19.8 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.1 17.1 0.0 53.2 51.0 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.9 19.2 0.8 58.4 56.0 19.9 22.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.7 18.8 0.1 55.7 51.4 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.3 17.9 0.1 53.6 51.4 21.1 22.2 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.0 22.8 20.7 1.0 63.4 57.5 19.6 21.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.8 17.6 0.7 60.4 55.6 19.6 21.0 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.7 23.2 20.8 0.7 58.3 55.1 19.6 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.7 17.3 14.9 0.6 63.1 55.4 14.2 16.2 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.7 20.2 0.6 58.8 54.7 20.4 22.1 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.2 20.6 1.1 62.7 57.9 19.8 22.6 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.7 20.7 0.6 56.2 54.3 20.5 22.4 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.1 22.3 19.1 0.7 58.6 55.2 20.0 21.6 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.5 18.9 0.5 57.2 53.7 20.8 22.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.6 17.1 0.1 56.7 51.7 20.1 20.9 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.6 19.8 0.5 56.6 54.0 20.5 22.3 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.4 18.3 0.1 55.2 51.7 21.5 22.1 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.2 16.7 0.8 61.6 55.9 14.0 15.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.0 20.6 0.6 57.6 54.4 20.1 22.6 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------