***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.3 18.4 -0.4 49.8 47.9 20.0 21.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 22.2 21.6 18.4 -0.2 53.5 49.8 19.9 21.5 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 19.5 21.0 18.6 -0.4 49.4 48.2 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.3 15.8 -0.8 42.8 44.2 12.3 14.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 19.6 20.6 16.4 -0.7 43.6 45.0 20.4 20.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.4 14.3 -0.6 46.9 46.2 18.2 19.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.4 18.3 -0.2 54.9 49.5 19.2 21.0 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.1 15.0 -0.5 46.8 46.5 7.2 8.6 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 19.6 20.3 16.8 -0.5 46.2 46.1 19.6 20.9 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.3 20.2 15.7 -0.5 47.7 46.7 19.4 20.3 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 19.3 20.3 16.2 -0.7 44.5 44.8 19.7 20.5 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 18.6 19.3 16.0 -0.7 45.0 45.4 18.6 19.5 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 19.3 20.5 15.2 -0.6 46.8 46.1 19.9 20.7 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.3 16.8 -0.2 52.7 48.9 19.9 21.1 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 19.9 20.4 16.5 -1.0 40.5 41.8 19.4 21.4 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 19.8 21.4 15.8 -0.7 45.6 45.3 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.3 18.4 0.0 56.0 51.3 19.3 21.1 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 18.6 20.0 15.4 -0.3 49.1 48.7 18.8 20.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.0 18.5 -0.3 52.1 49.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.6 12.9 -0.2 51.4 49.6 13.7 14.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.7 17.8 -0.4 47.8 47.2 19.9 20.9 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.6 18.3 0.0 55.4 51.6 20.1 21.3 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.3 18.4 -0.4 50.7 48.4 20.0 21.2 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 19.0 20.4 16.7 -0.3 49.9 48.3 19.6 20.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 19.1 20.6 16.6 -0.5 47.2 46.1 20.1 20.9 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.3 19.6 15.1 -0.7 47.2 46.2 18.9 19.8 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.8 17.6 -0.4 49.9 47.3 19.2 20.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.3 15.9 -0.9 42.2 43.2 19.5 21.6 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.0 14.5 -0.2 50.8 49.3 13.6 14.9 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.3 18.4 -0.3 51.8 48.9 19.6 21.2 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------