***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.8 17.7 -0.1 50.1 49.4 17.3 18.8 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 19.1 18.5 17.6 -0.2 50.0 48.5 17.4 18.5 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 19.4 18.8 17.7 -0.3 48.3 48.2 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.1 14.7 -0.2 50.7 49.1 10.3 11.0 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.5 18.6 15.9 -0.2 47.2 48.2 17.5 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.8 14.1 0.0 51.0 51.4 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 16.7 18.3 17.5 -0.2 49.5 48.7 17.0 18.3 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 14.2 -0.2 47.3 49.0 4.9 6.7 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.0 16.5 -0.2 47.0 47.8 17.0 18.2 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.2 15.0 -0.2 47.1 48.7 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.9 16.1 -0.3 46.9 48.1 17.4 18.2 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.7 15.2 -0.3 46.8 48.6 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.1 15.4 -0.3 46.8 48.9 17.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 17.6 18.9 16.3 -0.3 46.4 48.4 17.9 19.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.1 16.5 -0.4 48.1 47.6 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.4 15.6 -0.2 48.0 48.8 17.8 18.6 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.0 17.4 0.0 52.0 50.0 16.8 17.9 19.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.2 14.4 -0.2 47.9 49.2 17.1 17.6 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.6 17.6 -0.3 49.2 48.2 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.0 12.2 -0.1 49.6 50.7 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.6 17.4 -0.1 48.2 48.9 17.3 18.8 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 19.6 19.2 17.4 0.0 52.7 50.4 17.8 19.1 20.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 17.5 19.0 17.5 -0.3 48.1 47.6 17.8 19.1 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.0 16.2 -0.2 46.5 48.2 17.3 18.3 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.1 16.3 -0.2 48.8 48.8 17.2 18.2 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.8 18.1 14.4 -0.3 48.3 49.3 16.9 18.3 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.9 18.2 17.0 -0.2 49.2 49.0 17.2 18.2 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.2 15.5 -0.2 50.1 49.0 17.3 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.9 13.7 -0.1 48.7 49.7 12.0 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 17.0 18.6 17.6 -0.3 49.0 48.2 17.2 18.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------