***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 16.9 17.1 17.0 0.5 59.9 57.9 15.0 16.6 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.1 16.8 0.1 56.5 54.1 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.9 17.1 17.0 0.4 58.6 56.3 15.2 16.7 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.7 13.9 0.5 59.9 58.9 8.1 9.1 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.7 15.6 0.6 60.5 58.9 15.6 17.1 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 16.7 17.1 14.0 1.0 67.4 63.4 14.5 15.6 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.7 16.6 0.1 54.8 53.7 14.6 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.7 13.9 0.6 62.5 59.4 3.2 4.7 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 16.6 17.0 16.4 0.5 59.4 57.1 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.0 14.8 0.6 61.4 58.5 14.8 16.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.3 16.0 0.5 61.0 57.9 15.5 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.5 14.8 0.5 60.8 58.2 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.5 15.6 0.4 58.5 57.0 15.7 16.7 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.3 16.3 15.9 0.2 56.5 54.3 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 16.9 16.8 16.2 0.1 54.7 54.4 15.7 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.6 15.5 0.5 60.6 58.7 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.1 16.4 0.2 55.5 54.2 14.3 15.8 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.8 14.0 0.6 61.1 57.8 14.0 16.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.4 16.7 0.1 55.7 53.7 14.6 16.0 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.8 12.0 0.6 62.0 58.9 9.3 11.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 17.1 17.5 17.1 0.6 61.6 58.8 15.5 16.8 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.3 16.3 0.1 53.7 53.5 14.8 16.0 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.3 16.7 0.0 54.9 53.2 15.1 15.9 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 16.5 16.6 16.0 0.4 58.7 56.4 14.4 16.2 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.0 15.8 0.4 59.2 56.4 15.7 16.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.0 14.0 0.5 62.4 58.7 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.0 16.3 0.3 57.7 55.7 15.3 16.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 16.9 17.4 15.0 0.4 59.0 58.0 15.4 16.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.5 13.3 0.5 60.0 57.5 9.1 10.7 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.8 16.8 0.2 56.9 54.5 14.6 16.3 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------