***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 8.9 0.1 51.3 53.1 7.6 8.2 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.9 8.4 0.0 49.3 50.1 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.8 8.8 0.0 51.0 50.8 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.3 6.2 0.0 56.1 53.0 3.8 4.2 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.7 6.6 0.0 52.5 51.6 5.6 6.7 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.8 4.5 0.1 56.6 55.5 4.8 5.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.3 8.5 0.0 49.9 51.3 7.3 8.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.5 0.4 4.3 0.0 52.8 52.0 -0.4 0.3 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.5 7.2 6.7 0.0 50.7 50.2 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 5.1 0.0 51.7 51.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.7 6.0 0.0 50.9 50.1 6.2 6.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.6 5.2 0.0 53.7 51.7 4.9 5.4 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.5 4.8 -0.1 49.1 48.9 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.8 6.5 0.0 48.6 49.8 7.4 7.8 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.1 7.3 -0.2 48.5 48.0 7.3 8.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.0 5.6 0.0 51.5 51.4 6.7 7.9 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.2 8.2 0.0 48.7 50.9 7.9 8.2 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.1 4.5 0.1 52.7 52.4 4.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.0 8.0 8.4 -0.1 48.7 49.5 7.0 8.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.4 2.6 0.0 52.1 52.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.5 8.1 0.0 53.5 52.1 6.3 7.4 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.5 8.1 0.0 50.0 50.0 7.2 7.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.8 7.2 8.2 -0.1 47.2 49.1 6.7 7.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.0 6.4 0.0 49.4 50.1 6.6 7.0 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.9 7.8 0.1 53.2 54.1 6.9 7.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.5 4.4 -0.1 51.6 49.9 5.7 6.5 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.1 8.4 0.1 51.2 53.2 7.1 8.0 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.1 6.5 -0.1 51.7 50.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.6 3.9 0.1 52.5 52.1 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.3 8.6 0.0 49.3 50.2 6.9 8.4 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------