***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.1 9.0 -0.2 47.6 48.5 8.7 9.1 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.4 8.7 -0.2 48.0 48.3 8.2 9.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.8 9.2 -0.1 49.1 50.2 9.7 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.4 6.7 0.0 49.9 51.0 4.4 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.6 6.8 0.0 50.0 51.1 6.6 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.8 4.9 0.3 52.4 53.6 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.6 8.9 8.6 -0.3 47.4 47.3 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.2 4.8 0.2 52.8 53.0 0.1 1.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.1 7.0 0.1 50.3 51.2 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.1 5.6 0.2 52.6 52.7 7.2 7.8 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.5 6.3 0.1 51.8 51.8 6.2 7.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.2 5.5 0.1 51.2 52.1 4.8 6.0 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.0 4.9 0.1 50.0 51.4 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.2 8.4 6.9 0.1 50.3 51.6 7.5 8.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.4 7.6 -0.2 46.2 47.9 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.5 5.7 0.2 51.5 52.4 7.9 8.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.1 8.5 -0.3 49.8 47.7 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.9 4.9 0.3 53.8 54.2 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.7 8.7 -0.2 48.6 49.1 7.9 8.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.7 2.9 0.3 52.7 54.1 1.9 2.6 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.5 8.5 8.4 0.0 52.9 51.0 7.2 8.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.3 8.3 -0.2 49.7 48.8 7.7 8.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.1 8.6 8.7 -0.1 49.7 50.2 7.9 8.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 8.0 6.7 0.1 51.2 52.0 7.2 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.6 7.7 -0.1 48.7 48.9 7.4 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.0 4.7 0.0 51.4 51.3 5.9 6.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.4 9.2 8.4 -0.3 46.7 47.6 7.1 9.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.3 6.4 6.8 0.0 48.6 50.2 5.7 6.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.8 4.4 0.3 53.9 54.6 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.1 8.8 -0.3 46.9 48.2 8.2 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------