***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.7 8.7 0.3 54.2 54.1 6.2 7.6 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.4 8.2 0.2 54.3 53.6 5.6 7.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.6 8.7 0.2 54.0 53.8 7.9 8.5 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.1 6.0 0.4 56.2 56.4 2.0 3.9 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.8 6.6 0.3 55.9 55.6 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 4.3 0.3 55.0 56.5 3.7 4.6 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.3 8.3 0.2 54.6 54.0 6.2 7.3 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.0 0.1 4.4 0.4 56.7 57.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.1 6.8 0.3 56.8 56.9 5.1 5.8 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.0 5.2 0.4 57.2 57.7 5.3 6.5 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.6 6.2 0.3 57.4 56.7 5.0 5.9 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.7 5.2 0.3 54.7 56.2 3.8 4.6 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 5.1 0.2 54.6 55.9 5.0 5.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.2 6.5 0.3 56.0 55.6 6.2 6.9 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.1 7.3 0.2 54.8 54.7 6.3 7.0 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.4 5.6 0.3 56.4 56.5 5.6 7.0 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.2 8.0 0.2 55.2 54.3 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.5 4.6 0.3 58.0 57.1 3.5 4.1 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.1 8.3 0.2 54.5 53.8 5.6 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.1 2.1 2.8 0.4 56.8 57.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.4 8.0 0.3 55.8 55.6 5.4 6.1 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.8 8.0 0.2 55.2 54.5 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.9 8.2 0.2 55.6 54.5 5.3 6.2 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.3 56.6 55.9 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.1 7.7 0.3 54.2 54.6 5.4 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.6 4.4 0.1 54.1 54.1 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.4 8.2 0.2 53.9 53.6 5.5 7.2 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.4 6.4 0.2 56.2 55.2 4.3 5.2 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.2 4.0 0.4 58.1 57.6 2.6 3.6 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.6 8.5 0.2 53.9 53.2 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------