***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.1 7.2 0.1 55.1 54.0 5.7 6.8 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.1 6.4 -0.4 42.4 44.7 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.5 6.8 -0.4 43.4 44.7 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.4 4.2 -0.4 48.4 47.4 0.7 2.4 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.6 5.0 -0.4 43.4 44.9 2.9 5.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.5 2.8 -0.1 52.8 51.5 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.1 6.6 -0.1 47.9 49.0 4.6 6.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -2.0 2.2 -0.5 38.1 41.3 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.6 4.8 -0.6 37.1 39.6 3.9 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 4.1 3.0 -0.6 35.7 39.2 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.2 4.4 -0.6 37.3 41.0 3.7 6.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.6 3.5 -0.4 43.6 45.1 3.3 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.2 3.4 -0.6 38.9 41.3 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.9 4.4 -0.7 36.2 38.7 4.5 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.0 5.4 -0.7 37.9 39.3 5.6 6.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.0 4.1 -0.4 45.1 45.2 4.9 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.4 5.8 6.1 -0.3 43.5 45.2 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.2 2.6 -0.6 39.4 40.9 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.8 6.2 -0.5 38.2 41.2 4.5 5.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.1 0.7 0.9 -0.5 41.1 41.4 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.0 6.2 -0.4 43.7 45.4 4.1 6.4 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.5 6.1 -0.6 38.7 40.4 4.0 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.3 6.0 -0.7 34.8 38.4 4.2 5.0 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.7 4.5 -0.7 35.5 37.7 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.7 6.5 0.2 55.7 54.7 4.4 6.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 2.9 -0.3 46.3 46.9 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.9 7.0 0.2 56.2 54.8 4.6 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.9 4.5 -0.6 41.9 42.4 3.4 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.9 1.2 1.8 -0.6 38.6 39.8 1.0 2.5 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.6 6.8 -0.3 45.0 46.3 4.7 6.0 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------