***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 33.2 43.9 53.7 89.8 45.2 44.8 38.9 47.5 54.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 29.4 35.2 48.3 85.6 40.2 41.1 30.9 45.5 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 38.0 39.6 48.1 81.8 34.5 38.9 39.5 51.8 60.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 54.5 61.8 53.6 76.9 36.5 36.4 61.0 66.3 77.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 39.1 47.5 52.0 80.6 37.0 38.3 42.8 52.8 60.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 38.9 37.3 57.5 74.9 28.3 33.2 42.0 50.3 55.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 28.9 38.8 49.2 87.5 45.6 43.1 31.8 42.2 52.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 75.8 72.2 53.7 72.4 25.8 30.7 82.9 97.9 107.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 39.7 41.0 52.6 80.8 34.4 38.1 40.3 53.8 63.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 44.6 43.8 57.5 76.5 29.4 34.3 47.2 60.2 69.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 42.9 43.6 49.2 76.6 33.9 34.6 43.3 52.4 67.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 43.7 48.6 48.3 72.5 27.8 31.5 50.0 55.0 62.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 46.3 47.5 55.7 75.0 28.1 32.7 53.5 59.5 62.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 48.1 49.2 62.0 80.3 33.7 36.2 48.6 58.0 78.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 39.4 45.0 49.9 77.5 35.8 37.8 42.4 48.6 57.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 41.8 44.9 52.7 77.4 33.1 35.3 44.8 53.1 68.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 32.7 35.7 48.1 85.9 40.4 41.2 33.7 41.0 59.2 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 45.7 42.2 60.6 74.1 27.0 32.1 48.5 63.5 81.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 33.1 44.4 48.2 83.8 39.4 39.9 36.9 49.0 54.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 40.9 40.2 62.2 72.2 22.6 29.5 44.9 50.2 68.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 34.6 45.5 51.1 84.1 38.5 40.5 40.0 46.8 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 30.9 37.6 48.0 81.7 38.7 39.0 36.1 41.6 52.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 33.8 36.6 49.1 83.0 38.7 38.8 32.9 46.2 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 47.5 46.3 55.5 77.7 31.7 35.2 46.8 62.6 79.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 38.7 51.5 61.3 89.7 45.0 44.6 41.5 55.6 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 38.8 39.2 48.4 67.1 22.4 28.1 44.8 52.2 55.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 34.5 43.4 59.4 92.8 47.6 46.5 36.6 44.4 65.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 38.7 37.8 50.8 74.9 33.3 35.5 37.7 51.8 63.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 56.3 54.6 62.4 74.9 27.0 32.0 61.3 80.3 97.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 30.6 37.6 48.7 85.7 41.3 41.8 32.6 44.2 51.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------