***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.9 13.5 103.5 60.1 49.8 4.7 8.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.7 12.0 95.6 59.4 46.8 3.4 7.2 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.5 14.2 13.0 101.1 61.4 50.0 3.4 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.9 14.8 92.4 58.5 47.9 7.8 14.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.4 14.2 99.1 59.1 50.0 5.0 6.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.0 15.5 90.0 55.4 47.0 6.9 8.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.7 8.8 12.0 97.4 59.8 47.5 4.0 6.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.9 30.6 16.6 104.2 58.2 51.4 15.1 23.6 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.6 14.6 99.2 60.0 50.1 2.6 8.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.3 17.2 102.9 58.7 51.1 7.1 9.8 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.9 13.8 103.5 60.9 50.9 5.2 7.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.8 13.9 98.8 58.4 50.0 7.7 12.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.3 14.5 88.4 56.1 46.4 6.4 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.4 19.8 18.6 103.2 62.7 50.3 6.2 13.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.0 14.5 98.3 62.7 50.3 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.5 14.1 95.4 60.7 48.5 4.5 9.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.0 11.9 91.9 59.7 46.7 3.9 6.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 17.0 19.3 104.2 62.7 51.3 6.7 11.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.3 13.9 12.4 95.1 59.8 47.1 4.2 10.4 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.4 20.6 110.2 62.0 53.0 6.2 11.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.3 8.2 13.8 103.3 61.0 50.5 3.8 7.3 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.2 12.6 88.4 59.1 47.0 5.0 6.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.2 17.2 13.4 98.6 62.0 48.7 5.2 7.6 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.5 17.8 16.7 106.2 66.1 51.7 4.2 12.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.2 15.6 101.3 60.6 50.5 2.6 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 11.0 12.1 79.4 50.7 43.2 8.0 10.9 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.9 14.6 104.4 62.1 50.3 5.0 7.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.2 14.6 93.5 60.6 48.5 6.5 9.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 23.5 20.4 111.6 65.1 53.5 9.0 20.0 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.2 12.2 97.6 61.2 47.7 3.1 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------