***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.2 22.5 17.3 117.6 67.3 58.0 8.3 13.1 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.8 15.6 109.3 64.3 54.9 5.2 8.6 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.5 15.2 101.7 59.8 51.7 7.8 9.8 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.6 19.0 15.8 98.8 60.5 51.6 12.0 15.1 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.4 14.7 96.6 55.7 50.6 5.8 8.0 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.9 9.0 15.9 88.3 46.1 45.5 6.1 10.0 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.2 9.2 15.6 113.1 65.0 57.7 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.1 17.8 14.4 87.1 50.7 46.0 13.7 17.6 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.2 10.2 14.6 92.9 55.1 50.2 8.1 9.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 13.6 15.4 90.1 51.9 47.7 8.8 13.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.6 14.2 14.6 89.8 51.8 47.4 9.0 14.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.6 14.1 14.1 89.2 53.5 47.8 8.9 11.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.1 15.0 14.9 85.7 48.3 45.2 9.2 15.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.2 13.2 18.4 97.1 55.8 48.2 7.2 11.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 16.1 16.5 108.9 64.9 55.1 5.5 9.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 14.8 15.6 96.3 55.5 49.9 6.6 14.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.8 15.5 110.4 62.5 54.3 5.1 10.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 11.5 15.4 81.0 45.5 42.7 6.0 12.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.6 15.5 106.8 63.3 53.6 5.7 9.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 9.1 16.1 82.5 47.5 43.2 7.3 9.7 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 16.7 15.4 106.1 62.2 55.3 5.8 8.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.3 15.3 103.8 61.0 52.9 3.9 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.1 15.6 103.4 61.0 51.1 3.1 8.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.4 14.2 15.3 86.2 47.3 43.7 7.4 14.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.8 17.1 19.0 117.2 67.9 57.8 7.2 11.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.9 9.6 14.7 85.0 46.4 45.3 5.4 10.6 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 27.7 19.3 123.2 70.3 58.9 6.2 10.1 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.0 14.6 15.1 98.8 60.0 51.3 4.7 10.3 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.3 16.9 16.6 84.0 46.6 44.2 11.3 18.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.9 15.7 109.9 64.2 55.7 5.8 8.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------