***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 5.9 5.1 6.7 39.2 23.7 21.9 8.1 15.2 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 3.8 3.0 6.4 39.3 19.2 21.6 4.4 9.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 4.8 2.7 4.9 29.2 14.7 16.5 9.6 16.6 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 11.0 9.3 6.4 32.3 17.1 16.6 14.8 22.4 27.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 7.0 5.8 6.0 32.3 15.0 16.5 10.5 14.9 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 6.0 5.3 6.3 32.5 18.4 15.7 9.1 14.6 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 5.0 3.5 7.0 43.1 22.0 23.2 4.5 12.5 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 14.1 10.1 4.5 20.4 10.5 11.1 18.2 27.9 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 3.6 1.5 5.1 28.3 13.2 14.5 8.8 14.6 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 6.1 3.7 5.1 24.2 11.9 12.6 10.7 16.5 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 4.2 2.2 4.8 26.7 12.5 13.9 11.8 16.0 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 5.8 2.3 4.1 21.9 11.1 12.6 9.3 18.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 6.2 7.0 8.2 42.4 24.3 21.5 14.5 18.5 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 7.6 5.4 5.6 26.1 14.2 14.8 14.0 20.5 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 5.6 3.6 4.2 24.3 17.5 17.2 8.9 16.8 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 6.9 5.8 6.5 34.9 17.4 17.9 9.6 16.2 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 4.7 5.1 7.7 49.8 29.2 27.6 6.4 11.9 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 6.3 3.3 5.3 23.6 11.1 12.2 10.1 14.6 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 3.4 2.4 5.8 34.7 17.0 19.0 6.6 9.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 4.3 2.2 4.7 18.9 11.0 9.8 10.0 15.8 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 3.6 1.5 5.1 29.1 13.4 15.2 11.8 13.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 3.2 2.5 6.5 40.8 20.6 21.8 7.8 10.7 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 6.0 5.3 5.3 30.9 17.8 17.0 8.7 12.4 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 5.1 2.4 5.1 26.0 14.0 14.5 12.1 16.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 7.0 8.9 9.1 46.8 24.4 25.4 12.5 15.8 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 7.2 6.1 4.6 23.9 16.3 14.4 10.7 16.2 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 6.0 6.6 8.6 47.3 25.7 25.8 10.7 14.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 5.4 3.8 5.6 29.7 17.2 17.2 7.6 15.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 9.8 7.9 4.9 21.5 11.2 11.4 13.4 21.2 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 3.6 2.5 5.9 35.8 17.8 19.5 4.6 10.3 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------