***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 20.6 21.3 20.2 2.0 86.4 80.2 18.6 19.3 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 20.5 21.3 20.1 2.0 83.9 79.4 18.4 18.9 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 20.5 21.4 20.5 2.1 87.4 80.2 18.6 19.1 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 12.9 14.7 17.9 2.3 89.7 82.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 20.5 22.1 18.9 2.3 89.3 82.2 18.7 19.4 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 19.1 20.6 16.8 2.4 92.7 82.4 17.7 18.3 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 20.3 21.3 19.9 1.9 83.7 78.9 18.3 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 8.3 9.9 17.4 2.6 91.5 83.8 6.4 7.3 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 20.1 21.4 19.4 2.3 89.1 82.0 18.2 19.0 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 20.0 21.6 18.2 2.5 90.3 82.5 18.4 18.9 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 20.4 22.0 19.0 2.5 90.0 83.4 18.5 19.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 19.4 20.8 18.3 2.6 91.0 84.2 17.5 18.3 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 20.3 21.7 18.0 2.4 90.2 82.0 18.7 19.0 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 20.2 21.3 19.3 2.4 87.4 81.4 18.5 19.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 20.3 21.3 19.2 2.2 89.0 83.5 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 20.6 22.5 18.4 2.4 90.4 83.0 19.0 19.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 19.8 20.7 19.8 2.0 84.0 78.8 17.9 18.6 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 19.5 21.2 17.7 2.6 89.3 82.2 17.8 18.4 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 20.2 20.9 20.2 2.1 85.2 79.9 18.2 18.8 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 14.7 16.1 15.3 2.6 90.3 82.8 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 20.4 21.4 20.1 2.2 87.8 80.7 18.4 19.2 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 20.5 21.1 19.8 2.0 83.9 79.3 18.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 20.6 21.5 20.4 2.2 87.7 81.2 18.3 19.4 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 20.1 21.2 19.3 2.4 88.0 81.5 18.1 18.8 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 20.4 21.4 18.8 2.1 87.3 80.5 18.0 19.3 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 19.6 21.1 17.2 2.5 93.2 83.7 17.9 18.6 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 20.1 21.1 19.5 2.0 85.0 79.7 18.2 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 20.1 21.7 18.5 2.3 89.5 83.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 14.5 15.9 16.9 2.6 88.6 81.9 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 20.4 21.2 20.1 2.0 84.7 79.8 18.3 18.8 20.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------