***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 20.4 21.4 19.6 -0.6 40.4 43.6 20.0 22.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 20.5 20.7 19.5 -0.6 40.0 44.1 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 20.6 21.2 19.7 -0.7 38.4 43.1 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.7 17.5 -0.5 42.8 45.4 13.3 14.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 20.6 21.5 17.9 -0.6 40.7 44.2 20.8 22.4 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 19.3 21.2 16.0 -0.3 50.5 46.9 19.3 21.1 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 20.2 20.2 19.5 -0.6 40.6 44.0 19.8 21.8 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.9 9.2 16.3 -0.5 46.6 45.3 8.2 10.0 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 19.9 20.9 18.2 -0.7 39.3 43.8 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 19.8 21.1 17.0 -0.6 42.6 44.4 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 19.8 21.6 17.7 -0.5 45.1 44.9 21.0 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 19.0 20.7 17.3 -0.4 47.9 45.9 19.8 21.0 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 20.1 22.0 16.7 -0.3 48.7 46.9 20.7 22.0 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.0 18.0 -0.7 41.2 43.6 20.4 22.1 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 20.5 21.8 18.4 -0.4 46.0 46.6 21.2 21.9 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 20.6 22.1 17.3 -0.4 47.5 46.0 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 19.5 20.2 19.4 -0.6 40.3 44.3 20.0 20.8 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 19.1 20.3 16.5 -0.7 41.5 44.3 19.8 20.7 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 20.0 20.6 19.6 -0.6 40.1 43.9 20.2 21.8 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 14.2 15.0 14.1 -0.4 47.4 46.0 14.4 16.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 20.4 21.0 19.0 -0.8 38.0 43.0 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 20.2 21.0 19.3 -0.6 39.9 43.6 20.3 21.9 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 20.5 21.1 19.6 -0.6 41.2 43.9 20.7 21.8 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 20.2 20.7 18.0 -0.7 39.5 43.6 20.3 21.5 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 20.7 21.5 18.0 -0.6 41.2 44.1 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 19.3 21.0 16.7 0.0 50.6 49.4 20.3 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 20.5 21.3 18.9 -0.6 41.4 44.1 20.6 22.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 20.3 21.9 17.8 -0.4 45.9 45.9 20.9 22.0 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 14.0 14.9 15.6 -0.6 42.8 44.6 14.2 15.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 20.4 20.7 19.6 -0.6 40.0 44.1 20.2 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------