***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 21.5 22.1 19.6 0.9 62.3 59.7 19.9 21.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.6 19.4 0.8 61.0 58.6 19.8 21.2 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 21.3 22.0 19.9 0.9 63.6 60.3 19.6 20.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 15.1 15.2 17.6 1.2 68.8 62.8 12.6 13.9 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 22.3 22.4 18.3 1.1 67.8 61.8 19.9 20.7 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 20.5 20.9 16.3 1.5 72.5 64.3 18.1 19.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.7 19.4 0.7 62.1 58.0 19.0 20.7 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.7 10.5 16.9 1.4 69.6 63.0 6.8 8.3 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 21.9 21.9 18.6 1.1 65.5 61.5 19.2 20.4 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 20.9 21.6 17.6 1.3 68.3 62.2 19.1 20.4 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 22.0 22.0 18.2 1.3 69.3 62.8 19.8 20.7 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 20.9 20.8 17.8 1.4 69.4 63.8 18.6 19.2 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 21.9 21.9 17.1 1.4 68.1 63.7 19.8 20.5 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.9 18.4 1.0 62.8 60.0 19.8 20.8 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.1 22.0 18.4 1.2 66.7 64.0 19.5 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 22.4 22.9 17.7 1.4 68.7 63.6 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.3 21.3 19.3 0.7 59.6 57.6 18.8 20.7 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.0 17.2 1.3 67.2 61.6 18.8 20.0 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.4 19.6 0.9 61.8 59.3 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.3 16.3 14.6 1.3 69.1 61.4 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 21.3 22.1 19.4 1.0 64.8 60.8 19.7 20.7 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.7 19.2 0.7 59.6 57.7 19.9 21.1 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.9 19.8 1.0 62.9 60.3 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.7 18.5 1.2 65.0 61.2 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 21.1 22.2 18.0 0.9 64.2 60.6 19.8 20.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 20.1 21.6 16.9 1.5 72.6 64.5 18.5 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.5 18.9 0.8 62.6 59.6 19.0 21.0 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 22.0 22.3 17.9 1.3 68.2 63.7 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.1 16.3 1.3 67.1 61.1 13.5 15.1 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.6 19.5 0.8 62.3 59.0 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------