***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 20.7 21.5 21.1 3.2 87.1 81.7 17.2 18.6 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 20.4 21.9 20.8 3.1 87.6 80.6 16.7 18.4 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 20.8 21.6 21.3 3.3 86.9 81.5 16.8 19.0 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 13.4 15.0 18.7 3.5 91.2 83.8 9.2 10.8 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 20.8 21.9 20.0 3.7 88.3 83.5 16.7 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 19.2 21.0 18.1 4.1 89.3 85.3 15.6 17.3 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 20.0 21.2 20.7 3.1 87.3 80.4 16.7 18.0 19.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 8.1 10.9 18.3 3.9 90.0 83.9 4.3 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 20.3 21.3 20.6 3.6 88.0 83.2 16.6 18.4 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 20.4 21.8 19.2 3.8 89.2 83.3 16.6 18.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 20.6 21.9 20.3 3.9 89.1 84.1 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 19.6 21.6 19.2 3.9 89.9 84.7 15.5 17.7 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 20.2 22.6 19.4 3.9 90.4 85.3 16.7 18.4 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 20.7 22.1 20.2 3.5 88.1 81.7 17.1 19.0 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 20.2 22.4 20.3 3.4 91.3 84.2 16.6 18.0 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 20.6 23.5 19.6 3.9 90.3 84.9 17.0 18.5 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 19.9 20.9 20.5 3.1 87.3 80.0 16.3 17.8 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 20.1 22.0 18.5 3.7 89.2 82.4 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 20.2 21.3 21.0 3.2 87.6 81.0 16.4 18.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 14.6 17.5 16.0 3.7 88.8 82.4 10.7 12.4 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 20.8 21.6 21.2 3.5 87.3 82.2 16.9 18.9 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 20.2 21.7 20.5 3.0 85.0 79.8 17.2 18.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 20.6 22.4 21.2 3.4 88.4 82.1 17.0 19.0 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 20.5 21.8 20.2 3.6 88.1 81.9 16.5 18.8 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 20.7 21.8 19.9 3.4 87.6 82.3 16.3 18.2 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 19.5 22.1 18.2 4.0 91.5 86.5 16.1 17.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 20.5 21.2 20.5 3.2 86.7 81.7 16.5 18.3 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 20.4 22.3 19.5 3.6 91.1 84.2 16.7 18.0 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 15.0 16.8 17.6 3.6 88.3 81.9 11.1 13.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 20.4 21.3 21.0 3.2 86.8 81.0 16.3 18.4 20.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------