***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.5 10.4 -0.1 48.6 48.9 8.7 9.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 8.5 9.6 10.0 -0.1 48.2 47.3 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.3 10.6 0.0 48.3 49.7 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.4 8.0 0.2 53.0 52.5 5.3 6.4 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.6 8.2 0.2 53.4 53.3 6.6 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.6 6.2 0.5 59.5 58.1 5.9 7.2 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.7 9.8 10.1 -0.1 48.8 47.7 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.4 6.2 0.4 56.5 56.8 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.5 8.4 0.1 52.0 52.2 7.9 8.4 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.8 7.0 0.2 52.5 54.3 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.8 7.7 0.4 55.8 56.7 7.6 8.3 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.3 6.9 0.4 57.1 57.5 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.1 6.2 0.2 52.3 54.8 7.3 8.0 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.8 9.3 8.4 0.1 49.1 51.0 9.0 9.3 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.0 9.1 0.2 52.2 53.4 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.9 7.1 0.3 56.3 56.6 8.3 8.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.6 9.9 -0.2 45.6 46.0 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.9 6.5 0.2 49.7 54.5 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.9 9.7 10.1 -0.1 47.8 48.3 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 4.2 0.3 54.2 56.2 2.9 3.9 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.6 9.8 0.0 49.1 49.9 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 8.4 9.2 9.7 -0.2 46.1 46.5 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.4 10.0 0.1 48.2 50.4 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.0 8.2 0.1 48.8 52.0 8.6 9.0 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 8.3 8.9 9.0 -0.2 44.9 48.0 8.4 9.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.8 5.9 0.2 54.5 55.1 7.1 7.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.9 9.7 -0.1 47.1 48.2 8.1 10.0 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.0 8.2 0.2 53.2 53.6 7.3 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.3 5.9 0.2 51.6 55.2 5.4 6.3 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.5 10.0 10.2 -0.1 49.7 48.6 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------