***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.4 10.4 1.0 75.8 63.0 8.1 9.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.5 10.0 1.0 73.4 63.1 7.8 9.2 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.3 10.4 1.1 76.7 64.5 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.6 7.7 1.1 75.6 66.6 4.3 5.4 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 8.4 8.7 8.0 1.1 75.2 67.0 6.2 7.3 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.8 7.5 5.9 1.2 76.6 68.1 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.1 10.1 1.1 75.0 63.7 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 2.1 2.8 6.0 1.2 78.6 67.8 -0.2 1.0 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.5 8.3 1.1 75.1 67.1 6.8 7.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.6 6.9 1.2 77.5 67.6 7.0 7.6 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.2 7.4 1.2 75.9 68.4 6.2 7.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.1 6.7 1.2 77.3 68.4 4.7 5.6 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.8 8.1 6.1 1.1 74.3 67.5 6.5 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 9.6 10.2 8.3 1.1 74.3 66.1 7.1 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.6 8.8 1.1 75.4 67.2 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 9.2 9.4 6.8 1.1 74.4 68.0 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.4 10.6 9.9 1.1 72.7 63.6 8.1 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.5 6.4 1.2 77.5 68.2 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 9.6 10.1 10.0 1.0 73.5 63.4 7.5 8.7 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 3.6 4.0 4.2 1.3 78.4 69.3 1.5 2.9 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.1 9.7 1.1 73.3 64.8 7.0 7.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.5 9.7 1.0 71.7 63.2 7.2 8.2 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.6 9.9 1.0 74.8 64.4 7.2 8.3 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 8.8 8.8 8.1 1.1 75.0 66.3 6.6 7.8 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.1 8.9 0.9 72.9 61.9 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.0 5.8 1.1 74.0 67.5 5.9 7.1 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.7 9.8 1.0 75.6 62.7 7.8 8.5 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.9 8.0 1.1 75.6 67.6 5.8 6.5 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.4 5.8 1.3 77.6 69.0 3.7 5.0 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.4 10.2 1.1 75.5 63.6 7.5 9.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------