***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 8.3 11.0 9.7 2.9 97.7 94.8 5.4 7.0 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.9 11.0 9.3 2.8 99.2 96.0 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.6 12.0 10.0 3.0 98.5 95.9 6.5 8.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.9 6.5 7.7 3.6 99.4 98.4 0.8 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.7 8.4 3.0 98.6 96.4 3.3 5.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 6.2 7.5 5.9 3.3 98.1 96.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 8.0 10.5 9.4 2.9 99.1 96.2 4.6 6.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 0.4 2.4 5.7 3.1 98.9 96.7 -2.4 -1.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.8 9.9 8.2 2.8 98.4 97.0 4.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 8.0 9.3 6.6 2.8 98.4 96.4 4.3 6.5 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 7.3 9.3 7.8 2.8 97.8 96.3 4.0 6.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 6.1 7.3 6.8 3.1 98.5 96.3 3.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.4 6.7 2.7 96.4 95.1 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 7.7 9.5 7.9 2.8 99.5 96.7 4.4 6.3 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 8.2 10.3 8.8 3.1 99.2 98.2 5.4 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.1 9.1 7.3 2.9 98.0 96.4 4.6 6.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 7.6 10.3 9.1 3.0 99.6 96.9 5.3 6.2 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.5 7.2 6.4 3.2 99.4 97.5 2.5 4.1 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.6 10.9 9.3 2.8 99.3 96.2 4.8 5.8 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 3.4 4.4 4.7 3.4 99.0 97.0 0.0 1.5 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.5 9.5 2.9 98.3 96.2 4.2 6.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.0 10.1 9.2 2.9 99.9 97.3 4.4 5.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.6 10.1 9.1 2.8 99.1 96.6 4.7 5.6 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.1 8.5 8.3 3.0 99.4 97.6 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.1 9.1 2.9 97.6 94.2 4.4 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 6.9 7.7 6.0 2.9 96.2 94.4 4.4 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 9.0 12.5 9.5 2.9 96.8 93.5 4.5 5.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.5 8.2 3.5 99.3 98.1 3.6 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 4.4 6.3 5.5 3.0 98.9 96.5 1.3 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 8.0 11.2 9.5 2.9 98.9 95.7 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------