***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 37.2 44.4 60.2 90.0 46.4 44.1 38.5 48.4 54.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 32.0 46.9 55.6 93.5 53.0 46.5 31.9 45.8 51.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 41.1 51.2 58.8 90.8 48.1 44.3 40.8 53.0 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 53.5 66.4 62.1 83.7 43.3 40.5 63.2 66.6 77.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 36.9 44.5 58.4 82.6 41.2 38.7 39.4 51.6 62.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 38.9 45.5 68.1 85.5 38.7 40.5 42.9 51.7 57.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 47.2 42.8 55.5 92.6 51.4 45.2 30.1 42.2 52.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 77.7 83.4 65.4 84.4 40.4 39.2 77.6 96.4 107.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 39.4 47.2 61.1 84.7 41.1 40.0 37.5 52.9 63.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 46.2 52.1 68.1 84.9 40.7 39.3 47.9 61.1 75.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 39.5 45.1 57.5 82.9 37.8 38.3 43.3 51.6 66.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 42.2 49.3 57.6 83.3 39.4 39.0 46.2 55.1 62.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 46.4 53.3 63.5 83.3 36.3 39.7 52.7 58.2 65.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 65.7 59.7 74.7 90.8 47.5 45.3 51.1 61.0 78.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 39.3 49.0 55.9 82.8 46.8 40.8 45.7 50.4 60.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 40.0 47.0 59.7 84.0 37.3 39.7 44.9 52.0 65.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 48.4 40.5 54.1 92.4 50.9 46.4 32.2 40.5 60.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 50.3 58.7 75.7 89.3 43.5 41.7 50.5 64.4 77.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 53.5 51.2 57.3 93.6 51.5 46.5 35.3 49.9 58.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 44.7 48.2 77.2 88.3 40.7 41.3 45.6 55.1 60.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 33.7 45.8 57.8 84.9 42.7 41.4 40.7 46.7 57.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 45.9 42.4 57.6 94.2 50.2 47.5 34.4 42.3 52.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 50.9 45.1 60.2 93.1 48.6 45.8 34.3 46.6 56.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 66.5 58.5 69.4 90.9 47.4 43.9 46.9 60.8 76.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 36.6 49.2 64.2 85.7 43.9 42.1 43.4 51.2 66.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 38.8 49.1 58.4 80.7 36.3 37.5 47.4 54.0 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 35.7 41.6 64.1 89.6 46.8 44.1 36.8 43.4 66.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 36.9 47.8 58.9 83.1 42.8 40.3 39.6 52.0 64.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 63.1 75.3 78.3 91.4 44.7 43.5 57.9 79.4 98.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 32.9 47.3 57.4 93.9 52.6 45.9 31.9 45.5 54.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------