***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.5 19.3 106.9 61.1 51.5 2.4 7.2 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.7 15.5 94.4 56.0 48.3 1.7 4.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.7 18.0 103.7 60.9 50.5 4.2 9.1 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.6 19.9 104.9 59.9 50.3 9.2 16.7 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.9 18.8 104.1 57.6 50.0 3.4 5.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.2 10.8 20.7 98.8 54.9 47.6 6.2 9.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.4 15.4 92.4 53.3 47.7 3.5 4.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.8 20.2 101.2 56.0 48.4 14.1 21.9 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.0 18.8 99.6 54.3 48.1 4.6 9.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.1 11.1 21.0 99.2 53.0 47.7 6.6 10.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.7 17.6 102.8 56.5 48.9 5.3 7.1 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.8 17.9 103.6 58.9 49.4 6.0 11.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.4 9.1 19.6 99.0 55.8 49.0 7.0 8.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 16.6 22.0 96.9 57.9 50.7 6.2 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.7 18.3 105.7 61.5 49.4 2.3 6.8 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.1 18.5 102.4 57.3 49.3 4.6 8.2 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.3 15.2 93.3 58.7 48.5 1.8 6.4 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 13.2 23.6 102.3 56.1 49.2 6.0 12.0 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.1 16.0 95.2 56.0 48.9 4.3 9.4 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.3 12.8 23.3 99.5 55.4 47.8 6.4 12.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.4 18.5 105.3 60.5 49.9 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.0 16.4 98.3 61.2 50.3 5.5 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.2 16.9 95.0 56.2 50.0 4.7 7.3 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.3 21.4 104.1 58.1 51.4 3.9 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.7 11.9 21.1 105.7 60.5 50.6 2.3 9.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.4 11.5 17.9 98.6 56.5 49.1 6.7 10.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.6 20.3 104.3 60.1 50.4 5.2 6.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.1 19.4 106.9 61.6 50.4 4.2 9.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 21.4 23.7 102.8 58.3 49.4 8.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.8 16.7 99.2 58.0 49.6 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------