***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.5 15.7 96.8 61.1 48.7 4.2 6.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 7.0 14.7 108.0 64.9 52.6 1.1 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.8 14.7 94.2 60.1 47.6 2.8 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.6 11.8 15.9 87.3 52.4 44.2 3.5 10.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.6 15.0 84.6 51.1 42.9 2.8 6.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.9 18.1 87.5 51.4 44.2 3.6 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.3 14.5 105.6 63.6 50.9 1.6 3.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.4 16.5 15.8 82.8 48.3 42.4 8.9 17.9 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.6 15.4 82.9 51.4 42.7 3.0 8.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.6 8.8 16.7 82.3 48.5 42.1 7.1 8.9 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.5 14.7 87.8 53.5 44.7 3.3 5.5 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.3 11.4 14.5 85.1 52.0 43.9 4.0 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.8 10.5 16.6 86.1 52.0 43.1 1.8 10.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.0 16.4 80.9 51.3 42.4 7.4 9.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.8 6.4 14.7 88.3 55.2 43.8 2.0 4.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.8 15.2 86.1 52.4 43.8 3.0 7.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.3 13.3 98.9 59.6 50.8 2.2 3.9 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 11.6 17.4 80.7 50.0 41.5 7.0 11.6 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.0 14.8 104.6 64.3 51.5 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 9.1 17.7 82.4 49.1 41.9 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.3 14.2 84.3 55.0 43.8 2.1 7.5 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.4 13.6 92.7 57.9 49.2 1.9 4.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.2 14.8 97.7 60.8 48.4 3.1 8.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.0 9.6 15.9 83.1 52.8 43.3 3.7 8.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.1 16.8 92.3 56.8 45.7 3.4 5.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.0 14.5 82.2 50.3 42.0 3.5 4.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.8 16.9 98.0 60.6 48.3 3.3 7.0 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.4 15.2 85.8 52.2 43.9 2.3 5.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 13.7 17.6 82.4 51.0 42.0 8.7 13.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.1 15.1 106.0 64.1 51.3 2.3 5.7 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------