***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.1 16.3 95.7 54.2 49.6 7.0 9.9 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.4 15.8 107.2 61.8 52.8 5.6 8.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.9 17.7 104.6 60.9 53.5 5.5 8.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.2 15.3 18.8 99.9 60.8 51.6 11.8 13.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.3 13.8 16.9 91.6 59.6 48.5 7.3 10.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.2 19.5 97.8 59.2 50.3 7.4 9.5 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.1 16.7 115.3 64.9 54.7 4.6 8.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.5 24.6 18.2 94.2 58.5 48.9 16.6 20.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.4 18.0 96.9 62.3 50.8 8.3 12.8 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.4 17.5 19.0 95.9 59.5 49.6 8.0 14.0 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.0 12.8 17.3 92.3 57.0 47.5 8.5 11.4 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.4 15.0 16.8 93.6 56.4 48.1 9.6 13.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.6 20.1 18.3 97.1 58.6 49.4 9.6 17.7 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.2 26.9 22.3 109.4 65.5 54.8 6.9 11.7 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.6 17.1 95.4 60.5 49.3 6.7 8.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.9 17.9 18.1 98.6 61.2 50.0 7.5 14.5 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.6 15.8 110.2 63.4 53.5 4.5 10.5 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 15.3 21.0 100.7 58.2 50.4 7.3 12.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.7 16.8 109.0 63.1 53.6 4.5 10.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 14.3 21.4 97.9 56.7 48.7 8.6 12.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.8 14.3 16.4 91.5 57.1 49.0 5.7 11.5 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.2 17.6 116.3 64.6 55.0 3.8 11.0 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.9 18.5 112.9 64.9 54.8 3.1 8.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.9 19.0 20.5 105.2 61.9 53.1 7.9 15.6 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.8 18.0 94.8 56.1 48.8 6.5 8.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.3 13.6 17.4 91.3 55.0 47.7 4.3 11.9 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.7 12.6 18.0 100.0 56.2 50.1 6.6 11.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.8 17.6 97.0 60.9 50.5 4.3 8.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 22.2 22.0 101.4 58.9 50.8 12.7 18.3 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.3 16.7 108.8 62.2 53.4 4.2 9.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------