***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 5.2 5.5 8.8 56.9 32.5 31.8 5.6 13.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.2 7.4 9.6 65.2 41.2 36.7 4.7 9.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 5.7 5.9 8.4 56.6 30.9 31.3 6.1 12.2 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 10.8 11.5 7.4 41.2 22.6 23.6 14.8 20.1 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 8.8 9.3 7.8 46.9 27.4 26.6 10.4 15.1 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 7.5 6.6 9.8 54.5 28.4 29.5 8.8 15.6 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 5.4 4.3 9.0 59.5 35.0 33.1 3.8 10.3 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 18.1 17.5 11.3 58.8 31.6 31.7 17.9 25.6 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 6.5 6.7 9.0 55.6 30.6 30.6 6.9 13.1 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 9.6 12.0 11.4 60.5 33.0 32.4 12.0 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 7.1 9.9 7.9 46.7 28.1 27.1 11.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 7.1 7.6 8.5 50.0 28.4 28.2 10.2 13.9 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 7.0 8.8 9.0 49.4 27.3 28.0 12.1 16.4 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.1 19.8 14.0 74.3 44.4 40.4 14.3 20.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 5.9 4.2 5.7 36.9 26.8 24.7 7.6 14.1 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 6.4 6.7 7.9 46.4 25.8 26.0 9.5 14.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 6.0 9.9 67.8 42.2 38.1 4.3 7.1 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.9 13.7 70.9 39.9 37.5 11.1 14.4 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.2 9.6 9.7 65.3 40.8 36.4 7.2 12.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.4 13.3 14.8 71.3 40.0 38.5 9.3 15.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 5.9 6.9 8.7 55.5 31.6 30.7 7.5 12.0 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.5 8.5 10.0 68.0 41.9 37.9 5.2 11.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.9 9.5 9.9 65.2 39.1 35.6 8.5 15.0 19.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.3 9.7 11.6 67.4 37.7 36.4 9.2 13.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 4.9 4.3 8.3 46.6 25.0 26.5 7.5 13.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 7.6 6.7 8.5 48.8 27.0 26.6 10.4 14.1 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 5.8 6.0 8.9 53.1 29.8 29.6 7.5 15.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 5.7 4.4 6.8 39.7 23.7 24.0 7.4 14.4 21.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.2 18.1 14.9 76.5 43.0 40.8 14.3 23.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.6 8.9 60.5 35.2 33.9 5.2 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------