***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 20.0 20.2 19.1 1.3 75.8 67.9 18.5 19.2 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 19.9 20.8 19.0 1.4 77.3 68.3 18.3 18.6 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 19.2 20.5 19.2 1.3 74.5 66.9 18.6 18.9 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.6 13.0 16.8 1.4 78.3 70.2 11.3 11.9 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 20.1 20.3 17.6 1.3 75.2 67.8 18.8 19.3 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 18.8 19.0 15.7 1.4 77.2 70.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 19.7 20.5 19.0 1.4 78.1 68.1 18.2 18.5 19.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.1 15.8 1.3 73.8 67.6 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 19.7 20.0 18.1 1.3 74.2 67.1 18.1 18.9 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.5 16.7 1.3 72.6 66.4 18.2 18.8 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 20.0 20.5 17.7 1.4 78.2 69.0 18.4 19.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 19.0 19.5 16.9 1.4 78.3 70.3 17.6 18.1 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 20.1 20.6 16.7 1.4 78.2 68.8 18.6 19.2 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 19.2 19.9 17.5 0.9 66.5 61.6 18.4 18.9 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 19.9 20.3 18.5 1.7 83.8 74.1 18.4 19.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 20.3 20.9 17.2 1.5 79.7 70.2 19.2 19.6 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 19.2 19.7 18.6 1.2 74.9 66.4 17.7 18.2 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 19.1 19.1 16.0 1.1 69.2 64.3 17.7 18.3 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 19.5 20.2 19.1 1.4 76.6 67.9 18.1 18.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.4 13.6 1.1 69.7 65.1 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 20.0 20.3 18.8 1.2 72.4 65.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 18.9 20.3 18.4 1.0 71.0 63.7 18.3 18.6 20.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 19.4 20.4 19.1 1.3 75.7 67.1 18.2 19.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.5 17.6 1.0 69.0 63.6 18.2 18.6 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 19.9 20.1 17.7 1.2 73.7 67.1 18.0 19.2 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 19.3 19.9 16.4 1.9 84.6 76.1 17.9 18.4 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 19.7 20.0 18.4 1.2 74.6 67.2 18.0 19.1 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 19.7 20.2 17.5 1.5 80.5 71.7 18.6 19.1 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 15.1 1.1 68.9 63.7 12.7 13.5 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 19.8 20.7 19.1 1.4 77.6 68.3 18.1 18.6 20.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------