***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 22.9 23.6 20.8 1.7 70.2 64.7 20.9 22.5 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 23.7 24.0 20.8 1.8 72.7 65.7 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 22.8 23.7 21.0 1.6 70.7 63.7 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.1 18.6 1.6 70.7 65.2 13.1 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 23.3 23.3 19.2 1.6 70.6 63.5 21.1 22.2 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 22.0 21.9 17.1 1.6 70.4 64.2 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 23.0 23.6 20.9 1.9 73.1 66.1 20.6 21.6 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.0 17.3 1.3 68.3 61.4 8.5 9.9 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 22.9 23.0 19.4 1.6 69.5 63.1 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.0 22.9 18.2 1.5 69.1 62.2 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 22.9 23.3 19.0 1.6 72.2 64.0 20.8 21.9 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 22.2 22.0 18.4 1.5 70.3 63.1 20.0 21.0 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.1 17.8 1.6 70.6 63.5 20.9 21.5 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.2 18.9 1.3 63.9 60.0 20.4 22.5 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.0 23.3 19.7 1.9 74.9 68.2 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 23.3 23.6 18.6 1.7 72.0 64.4 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 22.7 23.5 20.6 1.8 70.6 65.0 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 22.1 17.6 1.3 66.0 60.7 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 23.1 23.6 20.8 1.8 71.7 64.9 20.7 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.8 14.8 1.0 63.2 58.5 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 23.0 23.1 20.3 1.5 69.1 62.7 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 22.6 23.8 20.2 1.4 66.3 62.4 20.7 22.1 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.4 23.5 20.7 1.6 70.1 63.7 20.9 21.9 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.4 19.0 1.4 67.3 61.3 20.9 21.6 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 23.0 23.1 19.2 1.6 69.7 64.1 20.8 21.9 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 21.8 22.3 18.0 2.0 76.4 67.2 20.0 20.7 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 22.8 23.0 20.1 1.7 70.8 64.7 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 23.1 23.2 19.0 1.7 71.9 66.0 21.0 22.2 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.9 16.5 1.2 64.2 59.4 14.7 16.0 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 23.3 23.4 20.9 1.8 72.8 65.4 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------