***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 21.8 21.7 19.6 1.0 66.4 59.7 18.9 21.0 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 22.4 22.5 19.6 1.3 70.0 61.9 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 22.0 21.8 19.8 1.1 67.1 60.0 19.0 20.5 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.9 17.4 1.0 64.8 59.2 11.7 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 22.1 21.6 18.0 1.0 64.2 58.9 19.4 20.3 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 17.0 19.5 16.0 1.0 64.2 58.8 17.8 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 21.7 21.8 19.5 1.3 70.0 61.6 18.3 20.2 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.0 16.4 1.0 63.3 58.9 7.3 8.2 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 21.4 21.1 18.4 1.0 63.6 59.4 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 21.2 20.7 17.2 1.0 63.3 59.1 19.1 19.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 21.9 21.1 17.9 1.1 65.1 59.7 19.4 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.7 20.0 17.4 1.1 65.0 59.9 18.4 19.4 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 21.9 21.2 16.7 1.0 63.9 59.3 19.2 20.6 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 18.5 21.7 18.0 0.9 62.4 58.1 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 21.5 21.1 18.4 1.3 68.6 61.1 18.8 20.0 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 22.1 21.6 17.4 1.1 64.6 59.8 19.8 20.6 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 21.7 21.6 19.3 1.2 68.3 61.0 18.0 20.0 21.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 21.0 20.5 16.7 0.9 62.7 58.5 18.5 19.6 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 22.0 21.4 19.7 1.3 69.0 61.4 19.0 20.2 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 15.4 13.9 0.8 60.9 57.5 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 21.7 21.5 19.1 0.9 63.1 58.6 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 22.1 22.2 19.0 1.0 64.9 59.7 19.3 20.5 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 22.1 22.6 19.6 1.2 66.3 60.4 19.1 20.7 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 21.8 21.2 18.1 1.0 62.4 58.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 21.7 21.7 17.9 0.9 63.7 58.4 19.0 20.5 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 21.3 21.0 16.9 1.6 70.8 64.1 18.4 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 21.7 21.1 18.8 0.9 65.3 59.2 18.3 20.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 18.6 21.7 17.8 1.1 65.2 59.8 18.9 19.8 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 16.4 15.1 15.7 0.8 61.0 57.9 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 21.9 21.8 19.6 1.3 69.6 61.4 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------