***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 16.8 18.9 18.1 0.7 60.9 55.6 17.5 18.3 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 16.6 19.1 17.9 0.7 60.4 55.2 16.5 18.7 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.7 19.3 18.2 0.7 60.4 55.6 16.8 18.7 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.7 15.7 0.9 63.4 57.8 9.3 10.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 16.6 19.1 16.8 0.9 62.9 57.6 16.8 18.4 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 18.5 17.9 15.2 1.3 66.5 61.5 15.6 16.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 16.1 18.7 17.8 0.7 60.0 54.9 16.6 18.2 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.1 15.1 1.2 64.2 59.7 3.9 5.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 16.0 18.6 17.5 1.0 62.3 57.7 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.6 16.0 1.0 62.0 58.3 16.6 18.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.6 17.1 1.2 64.9 59.8 16.9 17.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 18.6 18.0 16.2 1.3 66.9 61.2 15.4 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 19.5 19.3 16.5 1.3 68.0 61.1 16.6 17.7 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 19.2 19.1 16.6 0.3 55.5 52.7 16.8 18.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.8 17.7 1.1 66.3 59.8 16.3 17.9 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 20.2 19.6 16.7 1.3 67.7 60.8 16.7 18.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.7 18.4 17.4 0.5 58.7 53.0 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.7 18.2 15.2 0.8 59.8 56.8 16.5 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 16.8 18.9 18.0 0.7 60.2 55.5 16.4 18.8 19.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.3 12.9 1.0 62.5 58.1 10.6 11.9 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 16.3 19.1 18.1 0.8 60.1 55.9 16.7 18.1 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 16.3 19.5 17.2 0.3 55.5 51.5 16.7 18.6 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 19.3 19.5 18.0 0.7 60.7 55.8 16.7 18.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 16.1 18.7 16.8 0.6 58.0 55.0 16.5 18.1 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 16.5 19.2 16.9 0.7 60.7 55.4 16.7 18.1 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 18.6 19.3 15.9 2.0 74.8 66.9 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 16.4 18.8 17.4 0.6 60.2 55.1 16.7 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.3 19.2 16.7 1.1 65.7 59.6 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.6 13.1 14.4 0.8 60.1 56.6 10.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 16.6 19.0 18.0 0.7 60.4 55.6 16.5 18.6 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------