***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 17.7 18.3 17.9 1.8 74.6 70.4 14.3 16.2 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.8 17.7 1.7 77.1 68.8 14.7 16.6 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.9 18.2 17.9 1.7 74.7 67.7 15.2 16.8 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 10.8 11.7 15.3 2.2 74.4 74.1 7.5 8.9 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 18.2 18.7 16.4 1.8 71.7 68.9 15.5 17.3 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 17.9 18.2 14.6 1.8 71.5 69.2 14.6 16.2 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 17.5 18.0 17.6 1.7 75.7 68.5 14.5 16.6 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 6.6 7.4 14.4 1.6 71.9 66.9 3.2 5.3 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 48 52 100 17.5 18.2 17.3 1.7 70.9 67.2 15.2 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 16.7 18.5 15.4 1.5 69.1 64.7 14.9 16.3 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 46 54 100 18.0 18.7 16.8 1.7 70.8 67.6 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 18.0 18.5 15.5 1.8 73.8 69.6 13.9 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 18.6 18.8 16.0 1.5 68.5 65.0 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.6 16.6 1.1 66.2 60.7 14.1 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 18.3 18.6 18.1 2.5 78.4 78.5 15.1 16.4 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 18.7 19.2 16.2 1.8 70.9 68.6 16.0 17.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.3 17.2 17.1 1.4 73.5 65.8 13.7 16.0 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 16.6 17.3 14.5 1.3 67.4 62.2 14.2 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.7 17.8 1.7 76.1 68.6 14.5 16.6 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.0 12.7 1.8 74.4 67.0 9.8 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 17.9 17.8 17.9 1.6 71.2 66.4 15.0 16.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.5 17.1 1.3 70.1 63.6 14.3 16.5 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 17.7 17.9 17.9 1.7 74.6 68.2 15.0 16.6 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 16.6 17.5 16.6 1.2 67.7 61.4 14.5 16.3 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 17.6 18.4 16.9 1.8 71.6 70.1 14.9 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 18.1 18.3 14.7 2.1 75.5 72.3 15.0 17.1 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 17.7 17.9 17.3 1.7 73.2 69.4 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 18.2 18.6 16.5 2.2 74.9 74.7 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.6 12.3 14.0 1.4 69.9 63.0 8.6 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.6 18.1 17.8 1.8 77.4 69.5 14.4 16.7 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------