***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.5 8.5 0.5 62.7 59.0 7.5 8.3 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.3 8.2 0.4 60.4 58.2 6.7 8.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.1 8.5 0.4 61.8 58.3 8.7 9.7 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.7 6.2 0.7 71.6 64.7 3.4 4.2 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.3 6.4 0.5 64.6 59.8 5.7 6.5 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.3 4.3 0.7 69.1 63.4 4.6 5.4 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.3 8.3 0.5 62.4 59.1 6.7 8.1 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.3 0.5 4.0 0.5 64.2 60.6 -0.4 0.1 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.8 6.5 0.4 63.6 58.5 6.0 7.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.6 4.8 0.4 61.0 57.5 6.4 7.1 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.5 5.7 0.5 64.2 60.1 5.9 6.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 5.9 6.3 4.9 0.6 69.8 63.9 4.7 5.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.9 4.6 0.5 63.4 59.4 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.9 6.2 0.3 57.7 55.7 7.0 7.8 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.5 7.4 0.7 71.8 65.5 7.1 8.1 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.3 5.3 0.6 67.4 61.9 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.3 8.1 0.5 61.7 58.9 7.2 8.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 4.2 0.4 60.1 57.2 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.3 8.2 0.4 61.6 58.7 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.5 2.3 0.5 60.5 58.5 1.8 2.3 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.9 7.8 0.4 60.6 57.8 6.4 7.4 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.6 7.9 0.4 61.4 58.6 6.7 7.2 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.9 8.0 0.5 64.2 60.0 6.3 7.3 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.3 6.1 0.3 58.6 56.7 6.3 7.0 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.2 7.4 0.5 61.4 58.7 6.6 8.0 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.0 4.4 0.8 71.0 65.8 5.5 6.2 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.6 8.1 0.5 62.3 58.8 6.4 8.3 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.7 6.8 6.5 0.7 71.8 64.8 5.4 6.2 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.5 3.4 0.4 57.3 56.8 3.5 4.4 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.4 8.4 0.4 60.9 58.3 6.5 8.3 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------