***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.5 10.6 1.2 69.7 64.3 9.1 9.9 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.6 10.3 1.1 68.1 63.1 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.4 10.4 1.0 65.9 62.9 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.1 8.0 1.2 70.2 65.9 5.5 5.8 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 9.2 9.3 7.9 0.9 66.8 63.0 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 7.7 8.2 5.9 1.1 72.0 65.0 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.7 10.4 1.2 70.6 63.9 8.7 9.9 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.6 5.4 0.7 60.9 59.5 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.6 8.1 0.9 66.1 61.9 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.5 6.3 0.7 61.9 59.2 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.0 7.0 0.8 65.9 61.9 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.4 6.2 0.8 63.6 62.0 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.7 6.0 0.9 66.2 63.3 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.0 7.7 0.6 58.7 58.0 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.7 11.4 9.3 1.4 77.5 68.8 8.8 9.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.6 6.7 1.0 68.2 63.6 8.2 8.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.0 10.1 1.1 68.5 62.9 9.5 9.8 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.9 5.5 0.5 57.1 56.6 5.9 6.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.6 10.2 1.0 66.7 62.7 9.0 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.6 3.4 0.6 56.3 56.8 2.8 3.4 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.8 10.0 9.6 1.0 67.6 63.2 7.8 8.3 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.7 9.7 0.9 65.8 61.7 8.8 9.4 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.1 9.8 0.9 64.9 62.0 8.8 9.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.5 7.5 0.6 59.4 58.2 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.5 9.2 1.2 70.5 64.7 8.4 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 8.7 9.2 5.9 1.2 72.9 67.7 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 11.5 12.0 10.0 1.2 71.9 64.6 8.6 9.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 8.7 9.2 8.3 1.2 73.3 66.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.8 4.8 0.5 55.8 55.9 5.5 6.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.8 10.4 1.1 67.6 63.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------