***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.9 9.2 0.5 56.8 56.7 8.3 8.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.1 9.6 9.0 0.6 60.8 58.2 7.4 8.5 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.9 11.1 9.2 0.5 59.1 56.5 9.2 10.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.6 6.6 0.5 57.9 57.0 3.8 5.3 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.5 6.7 0.5 57.0 56.7 5.8 7.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.3 4.8 0.6 61.5 58.1 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.9 9.0 9.0 0.6 60.8 58.2 7.2 8.7 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.7 1.0 4.4 0.4 52.6 56.7 -0.1 0.7 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.0 7.0 0.5 55.8 56.4 6.4 7.6 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.4 7.3 5.4 0.4 52.7 56.3 6.7 7.2 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.5 6.0 0.5 57.8 57.6 6.1 6.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.8 5.2 0.5 56.2 57.1 4.7 5.5 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.3 4.8 0.4 57.4 56.0 5.8 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 8.3 6.8 0.3 52.7 55.6 7.0 8.1 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.7 7.8 0.6 58.6 57.8 7.6 8.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.7 5.6 0.6 59.9 57.6 7.1 7.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 6.9 9.4 8.8 0.6 61.8 58.3 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.8 4.5 0.3 50.1 55.0 3.9 5.8 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.2 8.9 0.6 60.9 58.1 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.6 2.5 2.4 0.2 47.4 54.7 1.3 2.7 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.2 8.3 0.5 57.4 56.0 6.7 7.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.5 8.6 0.6 61.6 58.5 6.9 7.9 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.8 8.7 0.5 60.2 57.8 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.7 6.5 0.4 53.3 55.4 6.5 7.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.6 7.8 0.5 56.7 56.1 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 7.3 4.6 0.6 60.0 57.6 6.1 6.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.9 8.6 0.5 58.0 56.9 7.1 8.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 6.9 0.6 59.2 57.4 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.6 3.9 0.2 48.6 54.9 3.9 4.9 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.0 9.5 9.1 0.6 59.9 57.5 7.4 8.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------