***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.4 7.8 0.2 54.6 53.0 6.4 7.1 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.5 7.3 -0.1 48.5 50.2 5.7 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.4 7.8 0.1 54.9 52.8 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.0 5.4 0.2 56.6 53.5 1.7 2.6 3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.8 5.9 0.2 56.9 54.1 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.7 3.7 0.5 59.1 57.8 4.1 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.8 7.4 0.0 50.7 50.7 6.3 6.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -1.0 3.5 0.4 56.9 57.1 -2.0 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.2 5.9 0.2 51.4 53.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.6 4.3 0.2 51.9 54.0 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.5 5.3 0.3 55.7 55.4 4.9 6.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.4 4.6 0.6 61.2 59.4 3.6 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.3 4.4 0.4 58.7 57.0 4.8 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.6 5.5 0.0 49.1 51.1 5.9 6.7 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.8 7.3 6.7 0.3 59.3 55.2 5.7 6.8 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 4.9 0.4 58.7 56.3 5.7 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.7 7.0 -0.2 45.1 48.2 5.9 6.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.5 3.7 0.2 53.5 54.0 3.5 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.6 7.3 0.0 49.5 51.1 5.9 6.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.4 57.5 58.1 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.5 7.2 0.1 52.7 52.4 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.7 7.0 -0.1 46.0 48.4 5.2 5.9 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.1 7.2 0.1 51.0 52.9 5.5 6.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.9 5.5 0.1 52.5 52.3 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.0 6.9 0.2 53.6 53.1 5.7 6.9 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 6.5 6.8 4.2 0.8 67.6 61.2 4.2 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.2 7.4 0.2 55.2 53.2 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.4 5.8 0.3 58.1 54.0 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.3 2.9 0.2 53.4 55.0 2.5 3.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.9 7.6 0.0 51.5 51.5 6.2 6.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------