***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.4 6.6 0.0 51.7 49.2 4.8 6.3 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.9 6.4 0.1 52.7 49.8 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.0 6.7 0.1 53.3 50.3 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.1 4.8 0.9 69.1 65.6 0.7 2.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.1 5.1 0.3 55.3 53.7 3.1 5.9 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.7 5.5 2.7 0.6 60.8 59.2 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.4 6.4 0.1 53.3 50.7 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -0.6 2.5 0.6 60.4 57.9 -2.5 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.1 4.9 0.1 51.5 51.4 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.5 3.2 0.3 52.7 52.2 4.5 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.2 4.4 0.2 54.1 53.1 4.3 6.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.0 5.5 3.8 0.7 65.2 61.0 3.3 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 5.8 5.6 3.3 0.0 49.7 49.9 4.2 5.6 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.5 4.8 0.2 53.3 52.9 5.0 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 6.6 6.7 5.7 0.4 58.8 57.7 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 6.9 7.2 4.1 0.4 58.1 56.3 5.0 6.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.6 6.3 0.3 54.8 52.7 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.1 3.0 0.5 58.2 56.7 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.4 6.4 0.2 53.9 52.1 4.7 6.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 62.0 59.2 0.3 1.6 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.5 6.0 0.0 50.8 48.8 4.0 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.9 6.5 0.3 53.7 53.3 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.2 6.4 0.4 59.1 57.1 4.3 5.7 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.1 4.9 0.3 55.1 53.9 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.3 5.8 0.0 51.0 48.6 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.8 3.0 0.5 60.0 59.1 4.4 5.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.2 6.2 -0.1 49.6 48.0 4.0 6.3 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.2 5.5 5.1 0.7 65.1 62.9 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.2 2.1 0.6 57.3 56.5 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.5 6.6 0.1 52.8 50.0 4.8 6.4 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------