***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 34.9 48.9 65.6 103.1 58.8 51.4 38.4 44.0 55.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 49.4 50.3 62.5 109.4 65.4 56.5 30.3 46.4 50.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 56.4 57.1 65.1 104.7 61.3 52.3 40.8 51.3 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 71.1 66.8 73.2 104.8 58.9 54.8 62.4 66.4 75.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 57.7 54.9 67.0 100.3 54.5 50.3 40.8 52.2 62.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 57.7 52.5 75.5 99.3 54.1 50.5 43.7 51.8 63.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 44.9 51.6 62.5 110.9 65.0 57.5 29.5 40.4 52.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 103.7 102.7 73.3 98.9 54.6 49.8 73.2 99.4 106.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 58.6 55.8 68.7 100.8 54.4 49.8 43.3 54.5 65.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 70.5 69.1 75.5 98.6 53.4 48.6 47.7 64.8 74.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 57.1 56.8 64.6 97.7 53.6 48.6 45.2 51.8 69.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 61.2 60.2 66.3 99.9 55.7 50.9 48.7 58.3 62.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 48.6 55.8 68.1 92.7 47.2 45.2 52.8 58.5 67.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 68.0 65.7 78.2 96.6 52.2 49.4 51.1 63.2 82.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 52.0 52.6 67.7 104.2 58.8 55.0 45.1 49.4 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 57.1 52.1 65.8 96.0 50.9 48.2 45.5 52.0 66.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 44.9 54.5 62.2 113.6 67.3 60.1 33.1 39.2 54.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 69.2 67.2 81.7 99.4 52.4 49.1 46.6 65.3 77.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 50.1 54.4 63.0 106.4 63.8 54.1 36.3 45.6 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 46.0 54.9 81.6 95.7 49.6 47.2 45.6 55.3 61.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 52.0 52.5 65.6 101.0 58.1 50.2 39.6 47.9 58.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 45.4 49.6 62.9 108.2 66.3 56.3 34.8 41.8 49.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 54.4 54.2 63.9 101.7 59.6 51.1 35.1 50.6 57.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 68.3 68.4 74.5 99.4 53.8 49.7 48.0 64.5 76.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 56.1 52.4 72.5 100.8 58.2 50.9 41.1 48.6 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 55.2 54.9 72.3 105.4 61.6 55.8 45.3 52.6 56.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 36.2 54.6 69.5 102.4 59.7 51.4 36.0 43.0 66.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 58.1 58.7 68.9 101.8 55.3 53.2 38.4 54.0 64.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 86.5 83.7 81.8 98.1 52.1 48.6 67.3 80.2 98.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 48.7 53.2 62.8 107.4 63.8 54.8 31.8 45.4 53.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------