***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.5 20.3 124.1 69.8 55.5 2.4 8.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 17.2 20.9 141.4 75.5 60.0 2.3 5.7 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.6 20.8 128.8 69.8 56.7 3.1 8.2 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 19.5 18.5 22.4 124.7 71.6 60.0 7.4 11.1 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.7 20.2 115.3 68.8 56.1 4.0 5.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.7 24.9 118.4 64.3 58.6 7.4 11.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.1 17.7 20.1 139.0 75.7 59.8 3.5 4.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.9 29.0 22.7 115.0 66.1 56.2 13.8 18.7 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.7 12.7 21.2 118.0 70.1 55.0 4.2 6.6 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 15.0 23.7 115.1 67.2 54.4 3.9 10.8 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.5 18.8 111.0 65.1 54.8 4.1 7.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.6 19.3 112.0 64.0 56.1 4.2 12.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.4 22.6 114.7 60.5 58.0 7.5 10.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.9 19.0 25.9 122.0 69.7 56.2 6.0 9.8 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.4 12.4 21.3 124.0 71.8 59.0 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.7 12.2 20.5 114.4 63.8 56.8 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 14.2 19.8 20.9 149.6 78.6 61.6 1.8 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 19.8 26.9 122.2 70.3 56.3 3.1 12.0 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 16.6 21.4 138.5 73.6 59.0 3.4 7.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 23.5 28.8 129.1 73.1 60.4 5.0 10.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.4 9.7 20.5 123.7 71.5 56.3 3.6 5.7 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.4 15.2 22.9 154.3 80.2 62.0 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.6 21.5 130.7 71.6 56.9 6.0 10.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.0 24.3 124.7 70.5 55.7 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.8 22.3 121.7 69.7 56.6 1.8 9.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.7 14.7 22.1 123.3 69.1 61.0 6.5 9.6 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.1 21.2 121.5 68.3 55.5 4.5 8.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.4 11.5 21.7 122.0 70.9 59.0 4.2 7.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.4 27.1 27.9 127.3 71.5 59.0 9.4 18.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.1 20.6 135.2 73.0 58.1 2.1 5.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------