***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.1 14.8 88.8 53.6 48.1 5.3 6.9 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.8 14.2 94.1 55.7 48.3 2.0 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.6 11.9 14.3 89.7 55.9 48.4 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.6 16.3 91.0 54.7 48.1 4.4 12.0 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.1 16.0 98.1 57.1 51.1 5.8 8.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.3 19.7 102.5 59.0 51.7 2.9 7.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.6 14.4 95.0 56.8 48.4 3.0 5.8 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.4 21.2 18.3 105.6 61.2 52.2 11.7 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.0 16.2 95.6 57.8 50.2 5.4 9.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.0 15.5 18.7 101.1 59.6 51.4 6.0 9.0 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 15.9 103.2 60.8 52.0 3.4 6.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.0 16.5 104.7 59.7 52.0 4.1 7.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.5 18.1 99.2 57.5 50.1 2.3 9.3 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 9.6 19.5 91.7 54.5 49.2 6.9 9.3 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.1 14.7 84.4 54.9 46.8 1.8 5.3 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.3 16.8 99.0 58.4 50.7 3.8 7.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.3 7.9 14.0 95.8 57.0 48.9 3.0 6.2 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.7 20.1 98.3 59.0 50.7 5.3 11.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.7 5.9 14.1 91.1 54.3 47.6 3.9 5.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 10.7 20.4 101.7 58.2 50.7 6.7 8.9 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.8 14.3 87.4 53.5 47.7 4.7 9.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.6 13.1 85.3 52.1 46.0 3.3 5.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.1 14.1 86.6 51.8 46.2 4.5 7.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.5 17.8 93.6 56.6 49.8 5.7 8.3 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.3 8.5 16.6 88.9 52.6 47.6 3.3 7.2 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.1 9.1 18.1 105.2 57.8 52.2 3.1 5.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.7 16.1 91.1 54.4 48.7 3.0 8.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.1 15.7 87.7 55.0 47.5 1.8 5.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 15.7 20.3 99.4 58.8 50.6 7.3 11.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.7 14.2 92.5 56.1 47.9 2.7 6.5 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------