***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 14.1 17.2 112.1 62.6 53.9 5.3 8.8 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.9 14.6 110.3 66.3 56.1 5.2 8.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.9 19.4 17.2 112.1 63.5 55.7 5.6 9.4 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.6 21.6 19.6 116.8 68.0 58.4 11.9 15.9 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.1 19.5 19.0 114.1 64.3 57.2 7.3 12.6 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.0 15.0 20.0 108.5 64.2 57.8 7.9 10.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.7 9.8 15.2 117.0 69.2 58.4 4.4 6.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.1 26.9 19.5 107.2 63.7 56.0 18.4 24.0 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 22.1 18.6 109.6 62.6 57.0 6.9 14.4 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.8 19.5 104.4 60.6 55.0 9.8 16.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.6 19.6 18.1 103.6 62.4 54.1 9.2 12.4 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.2 19.4 19.0 111.8 67.1 57.9 9.4 14.2 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.9 17.1 95.8 58.7 51.9 11.5 17.4 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.9 25.4 20.2 105.3 64.6 55.2 7.6 14.6 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.1 16.8 19.2 121.7 70.8 60.4 6.7 11.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.8 18.6 17.9 104.2 63.7 55.4 10.2 13.9 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.3 14.7 115.3 68.1 57.1 3.4 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.0 20.6 103.9 60.2 54.8 9.5 15.5 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 12.5 15.2 108.9 65.0 55.8 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.1 20.4 97.2 55.6 51.6 8.6 14.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.6 18.2 111.9 62.5 57.1 6.3 15.3 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.7 12.2 15.4 110.7 64.4 56.2 3.1 8.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.7 17.0 111.9 67.2 56.9 3.8 9.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.8 21.2 19.6 105.5 62.8 55.3 10.1 17.9 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.4 15.5 20.7 118.3 65.1 56.9 6.5 11.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 20.3 18.1 21.2 123.3 69.8 62.5 5.7 11.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 13.3 18.9 113.5 62.3 54.4 5.1 7.4 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 16.0 18.5 19.0 116.6 69.7 59.6 6.1 9.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.0 20.9 101.2 59.3 53.5 14.4 20.1 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.3 15.5 111.7 67.2 55.8 3.7 9.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------