***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 6.0 12.6 13.3 86.9 52.9 46.0 5.8 12.2 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.1 12.8 91.4 54.7 48.7 4.1 9.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.9 15.3 12.8 86.8 55.2 48.0 7.3 10.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 21.5 19.0 14.9 86.7 50.0 47.8 14.7 19.0 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.1 12.7 11.9 72.8 45.9 42.6 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.6 7.8 10.8 62.5 35.9 35.0 7.2 14.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.6 11.3 12.7 93.1 54.3 47.8 4.2 8.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 16.2 21.8 12.8 67.7 40.0 38.4 20.2 24.0 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.8 14.7 12.7 78.4 47.8 44.4 7.9 15.5 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 11.5 13.9 13.5 72.9 44.2 41.3 12.8 14.7 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 8.3 14.8 11.9 72.8 45.2 41.2 9.5 16.3 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.4 11.6 11.5 70.5 43.3 39.8 7.4 13.4 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 8.2 13.3 10.3 58.2 38.2 34.7 11.0 15.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.3 18.1 12.6 65.3 42.2 38.0 12.8 19.4 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.9 15.2 12.4 85.4 54.4 48.6 4.5 14.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.9 11.7 10.6 64.6 40.4 37.1 7.9 14.6 20.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.2 12.7 94.1 53.4 50.1 4.9 7.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.6 14.1 14.0 71.5 44.0 40.2 11.6 14.9 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.7 11.9 12.2 85.8 53.2 47.6 7.7 11.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 8.5 7.4 12.0 54.8 32.0 32.2 7.4 14.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.0 11.6 12.6 80.0 48.3 44.9 8.1 13.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.5 9.4 11.4 82.0 46.8 46.2 3.8 10.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.1 12.4 11.3 76.1 49.0 44.5 9.4 13.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.6 14.8 12.8 71.6 45.5 41.6 11.7 15.0 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 8.4 13.8 13.0 74.2 45.6 42.0 10.0 16.1 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 8.8 11.1 10.9 66.9 40.5 38.4 10.0 13.1 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.5 13.8 13.2 82.6 49.9 44.3 8.8 13.8 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 11.8 12.5 79.8 47.7 45.1 7.0 11.9 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 13.8 18.4 12.7 62.5 38.3 35.3 16.7 20.6 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.7 11.0 12.5 89.4 54.3 47.7 5.8 10.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------