***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 19.8 19.6 18.4 1.1 72.0 68.5 18.6 19.1 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 20.0 20.3 18.2 1.1 69.5 68.3 18.1 18.6 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 19.9 20.2 18.7 1.2 72.0 69.7 18.4 18.9 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.3 15.7 0.8 66.8 62.9 11.3 12.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 19.9 20.0 16.9 1.2 70.0 67.7 18.8 19.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 18.8 18.7 15.2 1.5 72.3 70.3 17.7 18.2 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 19.7 19.8 18.2 1.1 70.4 68.7 18.0 18.5 19.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.2 15.4 1.4 74.4 71.2 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 19.6 19.6 17.6 1.3 72.8 69.1 17.9 19.0 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 19.5 19.5 16.3 1.4 73.7 70.5 18.3 18.9 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 19.9 19.8 17.1 1.4 72.4 69.9 18.3 19.3 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 18.8 19.1 16.3 1.4 75.0 71.8 17.7 18.2 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 19.9 20.2 16.4 1.5 77.5 73.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 19.8 20.2 17.5 1.4 77.1 71.4 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 19.7 19.7 17.0 0.8 66.7 62.7 18.4 19.1 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 20.3 20.4 16.6 1.4 74.3 70.6 18.9 19.8 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 19.2 19.3 17.9 1.1 70.0 68.3 17.6 18.3 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 19.2 19.3 15.8 1.4 74.3 70.4 17.3 18.5 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 19.6 19.9 18.4 1.2 71.7 69.7 17.8 18.5 19.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.5 13.4 1.4 72.9 70.8 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 19.8 20.1 18.3 1.2 72.3 69.2 18.3 19.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 19.7 20.1 18.0 1.1 71.5 69.5 18.1 18.4 19.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 19.8 20.1 18.6 1.4 76.4 72.0 18.1 18.9 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 19.6 19.7 17.5 1.4 74.9 70.7 18.0 18.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 19.9 20.0 17.0 1.1 72.3 68.2 18.1 19.2 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.4 15.5 1.6 78.8 73.8 17.9 18.5 19.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 19.9 19.9 17.8 1.2 73.8 69.9 18.0 19.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.4 16.2 0.8 66.1 62.6 18.7 19.1 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.4 15.0 1.5 74.1 70.9 12.6 13.5 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 19.8 20.1 18.3 1.1 70.5 68.8 17.8 18.6 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------