***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.4 18.5 -0.3 45.3 45.2 21.4 22.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.9 18.3 -0.4 45.7 45.0 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 20.9 22.4 18.8 -0.3 46.4 45.7 21.0 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.4 13.9 16.3 -0.4 42.8 44.7 12.9 14.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 21.0 22.3 17.0 -0.3 45.9 46.2 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.0 14.9 -0.4 48.4 46.7 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.6 18.3 -0.4 44.4 44.8 20.9 22.1 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.2 15.4 -0.3 48.5 47.0 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.0 17.4 -0.2 48.8 47.0 20.0 22.1 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.0 16.2 -0.2 50.1 47.3 20.3 22.0 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.9 16.9 -0.2 49.6 47.3 20.5 22.0 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.6 16.4 -0.2 48.4 47.2 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.4 15.7 -0.2 48.7 47.4 20.3 21.5 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.7 21.9 17.2 -0.2 48.1 47.2 20.7 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.5 17.1 -0.5 42.1 44.2 20.6 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.1 16.4 -0.2 48.5 47.3 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.3 18.1 -0.4 46.5 44.5 20.4 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.7 21.3 15.8 -0.3 48.4 47.1 19.5 21.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 20.2 22.0 18.5 -0.3 46.4 45.7 20.5 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.7 13.1 -0.4 46.7 46.6 14.2 16.0 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 20.8 22.1 18.2 -0.3 46.2 45.9 20.8 22.4 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 20.5 22.2 18.1 -0.3 47.2 45.5 20.6 22.3 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 20.8 22.3 18.6 -0.2 47.1 46.9 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.8 17.2 -0.2 48.8 46.9 20.2 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 20.9 21.9 16.9 -0.4 44.1 44.7 20.5 22.3 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.5 15.4 -0.3 49.3 47.4 19.1 20.5 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 20.6 22.1 17.8 -0.3 45.6 45.4 20.9 22.2 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.5 16.6 -0.4 43.4 45.0 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.8 14.8 -0.3 47.8 46.6 14.0 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.7 18.4 -0.4 44.9 45.2 21.0 22.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------