***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.6 17.8 -0.2 49.0 49.1 18.7 20.6 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.7 19.9 17.5 -0.3 48.4 47.6 18.5 20.0 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 20.7 20.3 18.1 -0.1 49.8 49.6 18.5 20.3 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.5 15.7 -0.2 49.4 49.3 11.2 12.5 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.1 16.4 -0.1 50.1 50.1 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.1 14.5 -0.1 53.7 50.5 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.4 19.3 17.4 -0.5 45.3 46.5 18.0 19.8 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.0 14.9 0.0 50.9 51.5 7.5 8.0 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.4 19.8 16.8 0.0 49.6 50.9 18.4 19.8 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.2 19.7 15.7 0.0 49.9 51.4 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.3 16.2 -0.1 50.2 50.7 19.0 20.3 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.3 15.8 0.0 51.3 51.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.0 15.1 0.0 50.9 51.1 19.3 19.9 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.2 16.6 0.0 50.3 50.6 18.4 20.2 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 20.3 19.7 16.5 -0.1 50.1 50.5 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 21.0 20.4 15.8 -0.1 51.2 50.5 19.6 20.3 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.0 17.2 -0.5 44.5 46.1 17.4 19.6 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.2 15.3 0.0 50.4 51.2 18.5 19.2 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 20.3 19.8 17.8 -0.2 49.8 49.0 17.9 19.8 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.3 12.6 -0.1 50.0 50.8 13.8 14.3 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.2 17.6 -0.1 50.2 50.1 18.9 20.2 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 20.5 19.7 17.3 -0.3 47.1 47.8 18.6 19.8 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.3 18.0 -0.1 50.1 50.6 18.7 20.3 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 20.4 19.9 16.7 0.0 50.1 50.7 18.4 19.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.0 16.3 -0.2 50.2 49.5 18.3 19.9 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.4 15.0 0.2 53.4 52.6 18.5 19.3 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 20.7 19.9 17.1 -0.2 49.0 48.9 18.2 20.1 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 20.3 19.7 15.9 -0.2 49.8 49.7 18.6 19.7 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.6 14.4 0.0 50.6 51.2 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.0 17.6 -0.3 48.5 47.9 18.0 20.1 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------