***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 16.6 18.2 17.6 0.9 65.6 59.5 16.6 17.5 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 19.5 18.4 17.5 0.9 64.0 60.5 16.6 18.1 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 19.4 18.4 17.8 0.9 64.8 59.5 17.0 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.7 14.8 0.7 61.8 56.7 9.5 10.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.7 16.1 0.9 63.8 58.1 16.9 17.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.5 14.1 1.1 63.3 59.8 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 18.8 18.0 17.4 1.0 63.7 60.9 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.9 14.3 1.0 65.1 59.2 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.8 18.0 16.8 0.9 63.6 58.6 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.9 15.3 1.0 64.2 58.5 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.9 16.1 0.9 63.0 58.0 16.4 17.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.6 15.2 1.1 65.8 59.7 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.8 15.5 1.2 66.4 60.5 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 19.3 18.9 16.7 1.0 65.8 59.4 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 16.3 17.9 16.3 0.6 60.8 55.8 16.5 17.3 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.7 15.6 1.0 63.9 59.0 17.2 17.8 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.3 17.2 0.9 63.1 60.3 16.0 17.1 18.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.0 14.7 1.0 65.5 58.9 15.4 17.2 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 19.2 18.3 17.6 1.0 64.6 60.5 16.6 17.6 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.9 12.4 1.1 64.5 59.6 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 16.0 18.6 17.5 0.9 65.0 58.7 16.4 17.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.9 17.2 0.9 62.4 59.9 16.5 17.8 19.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 19.6 18.7 17.7 1.0 66.8 60.7 16.9 18.1 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 19.0 18.2 16.6 1.0 65.5 58.9 16.3 17.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.3 16.4 0.9 65.0 59.1 16.3 17.5 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.3 18.3 14.5 1.3 68.4 62.0 15.7 17.0 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.5 17.1 1.0 66.3 60.4 16.2 17.6 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.2 15.4 0.6 60.7 56.2 16.4 17.8 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.8 14.0 1.1 64.9 59.3 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 19.1 18.2 17.6 1.0 64.7 60.5 16.7 17.6 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------