***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 18.4 20.7 19.6 4.0 93.6 90.7 14.4 16.6 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 18.2 21.4 19.6 4.2 94.9 92.8 14.5 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 19.0 20.9 20.1 4.4 93.3 91.6 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 11.7 12.8 15.9 3.1 84.2 81.2 8.0 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 19.6 20.6 18.3 4.2 91.0 87.6 15.6 16.9 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 18.9 20.4 17.4 5.2 92.2 89.8 14.7 16.3 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 18.0 21.0 19.7 4.3 95.3 93.9 14.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 7.5 8.5 17.1 5.0 93.2 91.2 3.2 5.0 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 18.8 20.4 19.3 4.4 93.3 89.6 14.9 16.2 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 19.1 20.2 18.1 4.9 93.2 90.5 15.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 19.5 20.9 19.2 4.8 92.3 89.7 15.5 16.9 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 18.8 20.3 18.0 4.9 93.4 91.7 14.7 16.8 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 20.3 20.9 19.2 5.3 93.1 92.6 16.0 17.4 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 19.4 21.5 19.6 4.9 94.1 92.9 14.5 15.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 18.4 19.7 18.2 3.0 85.4 81.8 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 19.9 21.4 18.7 4.9 92.6 90.4 15.8 17.4 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 17.2 21.1 19.3 4.3 95.8 93.9 13.9 15.3 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 18.7 20.0 17.4 5.0 93.2 91.2 14.3 15.8 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 18.4 21.2 19.8 4.3 94.4 92.9 14.3 15.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 14.0 15.4 15.3 5.1 94.8 92.4 10.2 11.6 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 18.8 20.8 20.1 4.4 93.2 90.1 14.7 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 18.2 21.4 19.5 4.4 94.5 93.8 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 18.8 21.5 20.2 4.7 94.3 93.5 14.9 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 18.9 20.7 19.4 4.9 93.4 91.8 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 18.7 19.9 18.6 4.0 91.7 88.6 15.1 16.4 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 19.1 20.3 17.1 5.0 93.4 92.2 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 18.8 20.8 19.3 4.2 93.4 91.5 15.0 16.5 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 19.1 19.9 17.0 3.2 84.5 81.2 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 14.0 15.2 16.8 5.1 94.1 92.1 9.1 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 18.3 21.1 19.7 4.2 94.5 92.7 14.3 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------