***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 8.7 9.0 9.4 1.6 85.7 79.4 7.3 8.2 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 8.5 9.1 9.0 1.5 88.1 80.2 6.3 7.9 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 10.2 10.5 9.3 1.4 87.4 79.7 8.7 9.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 4.7 5.0 6.4 1.2 80.2 74.6 3.2 4.0 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 7.3 7.7 7.0 1.4 85.4 78.6 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 6.2 6.5 4.7 1.4 84.6 78.2 4.2 5.3 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 8.5 9.1 9.0 1.5 86.8 79.5 6.7 7.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 0.8 1.3 4.6 1.4 88.1 80.9 -0.6 0.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 7.7 8.2 7.2 1.4 87.7 79.9 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 8.0 8.4 5.5 1.4 87.5 79.9 6.1 7.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 7.5 7.9 6.3 1.3 86.9 79.2 5.9 6.8 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 6.2 6.5 5.4 1.4 88.0 80.9 4.4 5.2 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 7.2 7.6 5.3 1.3 85.1 78.8 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 8.4 8.8 6.9 1.3 85.2 78.7 6.9 7.6 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 8.4 8.5 7.5 1.0 77.3 73.1 6.9 7.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 8.4 8.7 5.8 1.3 85.3 78.5 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 8.7 9.0 8.8 1.5 87.2 80.2 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 5.9 6.2 4.9 1.4 87.1 80.2 4.3 4.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 8.5 9.1 9.0 1.5 89.7 80.8 6.4 7.6 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.0 3.4 3.1 1.5 87.6 81.7 1.6 2.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 8.0 8.3 8.5 1.4 84.8 78.6 6.3 7.3 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 7.8 8.3 8.6 1.4 88.1 80.1 6.5 7.2 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 8.2 8.7 8.8 1.5 91.7 81.8 6.2 7.2 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 7.7 8.2 6.8 1.4 87.0 80.1 6.1 6.8 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 8.3 8.6 8.2 1.5 84.8 79.1 6.4 7.8 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 6.9 7.4 4.9 1.5 88.8 81.6 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 8.8 9.5 8.9 1.6 85.9 79.5 6.3 8.2 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 6.7 6.9 6.6 1.1 78.0 72.9 5.3 6.2 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 5.2 5.5 4.2 1.5 88.2 81.7 3.4 4.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 8.7 9.2 9.2 1.5 88.1 80.1 6.5 8.0 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------