***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.0 10.2 9.4 0.0 50.6 50.4 9.1 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 8.1 9.6 9.2 0.0 51.1 50.2 8.7 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 9.9 11.6 9.4 0.0 50.0 50.9 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.9 6.7 -0.1 47.8 49.5 5.0 6.3 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.1 6.9 0.0 48.5 51.2 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.7 4.8 -0.1 45.6 50.5 5.8 7.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 8.2 10.2 9.2 0.0 50.7 50.2 8.9 10.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.8 4.8 0.2 52.8 53.7 0.9 1.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.4 7.2 0.1 50.5 52.1 7.7 8.4 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.7 5.7 0.1 51.9 53.3 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.3 6.2 0.1 48.9 52.7 7.4 8.4 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 5.5 0.2 53.2 54.0 6.1 6.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.6 5.1 0.1 51.6 52.6 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.7 7.2 0.2 55.6 53.6 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.2 7.8 -0.1 46.9 49.0 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.5 5.8 0.1 50.6 52.3 8.3 9.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 8.8 10.0 9.0 0.1 50.0 50.5 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.9 5.0 0.3 53.6 55.8 5.8 6.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 8.5 10.1 9.2 0.1 51.4 50.8 8.8 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.6 2.9 0.2 52.1 54.6 2.8 3.5 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.7 8.6 0.1 50.5 51.2 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 8.0 9.3 8.8 0.1 50.1 50.8 8.6 9.3 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 8.1 9.5 9.0 0.2 52.4 52.3 8.4 9.3 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.2 6.9 0.2 53.7 54.1 8.0 9.1 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.8 8.0 0.0 49.0 50.3 8.3 9.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.0 4.9 0.2 52.3 54.0 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.9 8.8 0.0 50.2 50.5 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.5 6.9 -0.1 47.0 49.0 6.7 7.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.8 4.4 0.3 54.2 56.2 5.4 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.3 10.3 9.3 0.0 50.7 50.2 8.7 10.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------